黑色产业链周报-20251229

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall: The report presents a weekly analysis of the black industry chain, covering various aspects such as market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements of different products including steel products, iron ore, coal - coke, and ferroalloys [1][12][13]. - Steel Products: The steel market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to remain at a low level. The impact of short - term domestic macro - market on prices is limited [12]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore market has a continuously loose supply - demand situation. Although the macro - narrative is positive and the industrial chain fundamentals have improved, the price increase is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore is expected to be in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [13]. - Coal - Coke: The fundamentals of the coal - coke market are still weak. Although the coal price has stopped falling and rebounded in the past two weeks, the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. The price rebound lacks upward support, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to position risk control before the New Year's Day [16]. - Ferroalloys: The ferroalloy market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The cost side has relatively strong support, and future attention should be paid to changes in the supply side and the progress of winter storage [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 Week - on - Week Market Review - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and price change rates of the futures main contracts and spot prices of various products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, silicon iron, and scrap steel from December 19 to December 26, 2025 [8]. 3.2 02 This Week's Black Market Forecast 3.2.1 Steel Products - Logic: The profitability rate of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 percentage points to 37.23%, the operating rate decreased by 0.15 percentage points to 78.32%, and the capacity utilization rate increased to 84.94%. The average daily pig iron output increased by 0.03 million tons week - on - week to 2.2658 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 53.22%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12 percentage points; the average operating rate was 67.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 percentage points. The steel market was mainly in a sideways consolidation state last week. Heavy pollution weather warnings in many places affected the supply side, but it was the off - season for demand, and the weak demand made it difficult for supply changes to drive price increases [12]. - Viewpoint: The price is expected to remain at a low level [12]. - Later Concerns: Macro - policies and downstream demand [12]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - Logic: Macroeconomically, China's monetary and fiscal policies are in a period of active reserve, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising. The real - end of the industrial chain is in a weak equilibrium stage, and prices maintain a narrow - range fluctuation trend. The inventory pressure on the steel product side has been continuously relieved, and the valuation of the industrial chain has rebounded. The strong spot price of iron ore supports the futures market, and the upcoming steel mill restocking cycle may support prices. In terms of supply, the weekly shipment of foreign mines decreased slightly, and the arrival volume remained at a medium - to - high level and was higher than the same period last year. In terms of demand, domestic demand has stabilized and rebounded slightly, and the restocking demand is expected to be continuously released. In terms of inventory, the steel mill's imported inventory has increased, but it is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, and the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [13]. - Viewpoint: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton. The strategy is to operate within the range and sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. - Later Concerns: Incremental macro - policies, implementation of industrial policies, and supply recovery speed [13]. 3.2.3 Coal - Coke - Logic: Last week, the coal - coke futures prices fluctuated widely and closed slightly higher on a weekly basis. The coking coal prices in various regions were weakly stable, and the steel mills completed the third round of price cuts for coke, with further price cut expectations in the market. Coal mines reduced production at the end of the year, and coking enterprises started to replenish inventory moderately, but the overall market transaction was still weak, and the mine - end inventory continued to accumulate. The import volume at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased, and the port supervision area inventory was at a relatively high level. The demand was temporarily stable, and the average daily pig iron output of steel mill blast furnaces stopped falling [16]. - Viewpoint: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to position risk control before the New Year's Day [16]. - Later Concerns: Changes in the production rhythm of coal - coke - steel and changes in the clearance of imported coal [15]. 3.2.4 Ferroalloys - Logic: Macroeconomically, the US economy maintains resilience, but there are still internal contradictions. In China, Beijing optimized the purchase - restriction policy, and the central bank carried out MLF operations to release a loose signal. The black metal futures market showed a weak sideways trend last week, and the prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron futures increased slightly. In terms of supply, the production and operating rate of manganese silicon increased, but the operating rate was still significantly lower than the same period in the past five years; the production and operating rate of silicon iron continued to decline slightly. In terms of demand, the weekly demand for manganese silicon increased slightly, while the demand for silicon iron decreased slightly, and both were significantly lower than the same period in the past five years. In terms of inventory, the cost support for both manganese silicon and silicon iron was relatively strong [17]. - Viewpoint: The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and future attention should be paid to changes in the supply side and the progress of winter storage [17]. - Later Concerns: Domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production restrictions [17]. 3.3 03 Variety Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - Rebar: The output last week was 1.8439 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0271 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3191 million tons; the apparent demand was 2.0268 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0596 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.169 million tons. The long - process output was 1.5498 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.026 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3528 million tons; the short - process output was 0.2941 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.001 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0337 million tons. The long - process factory inventory was 1.1345 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.002 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.106 million tons; the short - process factory inventory was 0.2661 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0032 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0787 million tons. The social inventory was 2.9419 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1881 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1598 million tons; the steel mill inventory was 1.4006 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0052 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1853 million tons; the total inventory was 4.3425 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1829 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.3451 million tons [20][23][26][30]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The output last week was 2.9354 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0163 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.136 million tons; the apparent demand was 3.0704 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0876 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0229 million tons. The social inventory was 2.967 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.106 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.6995 million tons; the steel mill inventory was 0.8052 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.029 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0018 million tons; the total inventory was 3.7722 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.135 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.7013 million tons [31][36]. - Basis: For rebar in Shanghai, the basis for January was 193 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 13 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 92 yuan/ton; for May, it was 172 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 77 yuan/ton; for October, it was 123 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 26 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 67 yuan/ton. For rebar in Beijing, the basis for January was 133 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 33 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 51 yuan/ton; for May, it was 112 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 17 yuan/ton; for October, it was 63 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 7 yuan/ton. For hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, the basis for January was - 18 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 66 yuan/ton; for May, it was - 13 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 25 yuan/ton; for October, it was - 26 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 15 yuan/ton [39][44][48]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Imported Ore Port Inventory (45 Ports): The total imported ore port inventory this week was 158.5866 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4603 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 9.956 million tons; the Australian ore inventory was 69.4126 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.6865 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.7914 million tons; the Brazilian ore inventory was 56.6956 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.255 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3277 million tons; the trade ore inventory was 103.6761 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.6995 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.6771 million tons; the average daily port ore removal volume was 3.1506 million tons per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.0161 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0915 million tons [51]. - 247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory/Daily Consumption: The inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 88.6019 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3624 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 7.1151 million tons; the inventory - to - sales ratio was 31.64, a week - on - week increase of 0.54 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.88; the daily consumption was 2.8004 million tons per day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0054 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0554 million tons; the daily pig iron output was 2.2658 million tons per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.0003 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0129 million tons [62]. - 247 Steel Mills' Operating Rate/Profitability Rate: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 78.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.39 percentage points; the iron - making utilization rate was 84.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.61 percentage points; the profitability rate was 37.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.55 percentage points [67]. - Global Shipment (19 Ports): The total global shipment this week was 34.645 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.277 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.027 million tons; the shipment from Australia and Brazil to the world was 27.846 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.407 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.707 million tons; the non - mainstream shipment was 7.159 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.32 million tons [71]. 3.3.3 Coal - Coke - Coke Inventory: The total coke inventory (coking enterprises + steel mills + ports) last week was 9.126 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1215 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0772 million tons. The inventory of independent coking enterprises was 0.922 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.011 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.011 million tons; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.422 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.085 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.029 million tons; the inventory of 4 ports was 1.782 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0255 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0952 million tons [109]. - Coking Coal Inventory: The total coking coal inventory (coking enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) last week was 27.578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3023 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.5825 million tons. The inventory of independent coking enterprises was 10.397 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.034 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.149 million tons; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 0.8067 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0017 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.031 million tons; the inventory of 5 ports was 2.995 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1