Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tin prices are expected to run strongly. The increase in supply from Myanmar has alleviated high - priced tin to some extent, but the ongoing tense situation in the DRC has kept tin prices high and even pushed them to new highs. With the continuous rise of tin prices, the downstream's willingness to take delivery has decreased, and tin inventories at home and abroad have been accumulating recently. In terms of demand, the semiconductor industry maintains growth, while the growth of the domestic automobile and home appliance industries shows a decline in the month - on - month growth rate [14]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to stabilize in a range - bound manner, with strengthened cost support and a tight supply - demand balance dominating the fluctuations. The upstream raw material prices have increased, strengthening the cost support. The supply capacity is being released in an orderly manner, but the demand for cathode materials has slightly decreased, and the inventory pattern remains tight. The industry is facing increasing profit pressure [15]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Review of Non - ferrous Metals Market - Copper: The closing price of the futures main contract CU2602 on December 26, 2025, was 98,720 yuan, with a weekly increase of 5,540 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 5.95%. The average price of copper in Shanghai Wumaomarket was 97,865 yuan, with a weekly increase of 5,385 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 5.82% [9]. - Aluminum: The closing price of the futures main contract AL2602 on December 26, 2025, was 22,405 yuan, with a weekly increase of 220 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.99%. The average price of aluminum (A00) in the non - ferrous market was 22,060 yuan, with a weekly increase of 220 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.01% [9]. - Zinc: The closing price of the futures main contract ZN2602 on December 26, 2025, was 23,170 yuan, with a weekly increase of 105 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.46%. The price of zinc ingots (0, Zn99.995, domestic and imported) was 23,120 yuan, with a weekly decrease of 24 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of - 0.10% [9]. - Tin: The closing price of the futures main contract SN2602 on December 26, 2025, was 338,550 yuan, with a weekly decrease of 4,490 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of - 1.31%. The average price of tin in Shanghai Wumaomarket was 334,000 yuan, with a weekly decrease of 2,000 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of - 0.60% [9]. - Nickel: The closing price of the futures main contract NI2602 on December 26, 2025, was 126,750 yuan, with a weekly increase of 9,570 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 8.17%. The average price of nickel (1) was 130,810 yuan, with a weekly increase of 10,020 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 8.30% [9]. 02. This Week's Forecast of Non - ferrous Metals Market - Tin: The supply from Myanmar has increased, but the situation in the DRC has kept tin prices high. The downstream's willingness to take delivery has decreased, and inventories have accumulated. The semiconductor industry maintains growth, while the growth of the domestic automobile and home appliance industries has slowed down. Tin prices are expected to run strongly [14]. - Lithium carbonate: - Market performance: Last week, the lithium carbonate contract price on the disk was strong, and the price center continued to rise. The main contract LC2605 increased by 17.16% week - on - week, reaching a new high since July 2024. The average price of SMM electric carbon increased by 6.94% week - on - week to 103,400 yuan/ton. There was a divergence between the spot and futures markets, with the spot market weakly fluctuating and the futures premium expanding [15]. - Supply side: Upstream raw materials increased slightly month - on - month and significantly year - on - year, strengthening cost support. The overall supply capacity was released in an orderly manner, with production and operating rates increasing by 0.53% month - on - month [15]. - Demand side: The production of cathode materials slightly decreased, and inventories continued to decline. Phosphoric acid iron - lithium cells showed strong performance, with a year - on - year production increase of 61.58%, while ternary cells were weak, with a production of 7.1 GWh (a month - on - month decrease of 1.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.83%) [15]. - Inventory: Social inventories increased slightly, and sample inventories continued to decline but at a slower pace. The overall inventory was still tight [15]. - Cost and profit: Mainstream production processes continued to be in a loss state, and the loss differentials expanded. Import and export and delivery arbitrage profits showed different characteristics [15]. 03. Variety Data (Tin, Lithium Carbonate) Tin - Refined tin production and operating rate: In the week of December 26, the combined production of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 0.338 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.002 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0265 million tons. The combined operating rate was 69.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.41% and a year - on - year increase of 5.47% [20]. - Tin ingot inventory: In the week of December 19, the total SHFE tin ingot inventory was 8,095 tons, a month - on - month increase of 704 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1,261 tons. The social inventory of tin ingots in different regions of China was 9,192 tons, a month - on - month increase of 732 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1,387 tons [23]. - Tin concentrate processing fees: The processing fees for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi remained flat week - on - week and decreased year - on - year [24]. - Tin ore import profit and loss: In the week of December 25, the import profit and loss level of tin ore was 22,313.14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8,852 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 4,232.29 yuan [26]. - Spot average prices: The average prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year [30]. Lithium Carbonate - Key high - frequency data in the industrial chain: - The closing price of the main contract on December 26, 2025, increased by 17.16% week - on - week and 68.37% year - on - year. - The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 53.85% week - on - week and increased by 363.18% year - on - year. - The position of the main contract decreased by 13.72% week - on - week and increased by 253.34% year - on - year. - The basis of the main contract increased by 33.48% week - on - week and 869.79% year - on - year. - The number of warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 15.34% week - on - week and decreased by 65.30% year - on - year [32]. - Supply side: - Raw material market: The prices of various types of lithium ore increased significantly, strengthening cost support [34]. - Operating rate: The total weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate increased slightly week - on - week and year - on - year, with significant differences among different production processes [36]. - Production: The total weekly production of lithium carbonate increased slightly week - on - week and significantly year - on - year [41]. - Demand side: - Cathode material market: The overall cathode material market showed a short - term decline in production and continuous inventory reduction [45]. - Terminal market: The production of power cells decreased slightly, showing a differentiation between strong phosphoric acid iron - lithium and weak ternary [48]. - Inventory: The inventory pattern remained tight, and the inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end [55]. - Cost and profit: - The production of lithium carbonate using purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate was in a loss state, with the loss of lithium spodumene concentrate production expanding and that of lithium mica concentrate production narrowing year - on - year [60]. - The import of lithium carbonate still had a profit, but the profit margin had narrowed. There were significant differences among varieties, and the delivery arbitrage window for lithium carbonate was opened [60][61].
华宝期货有色金属周报-20251229
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-12-29 12:34