GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-12-29 12:35Macro Economic Insights - The US GDP grew by 2.33% year-on-year and 4.30% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025[7] - The industrial output in the US increased by 2.29% year-on-year in November 2025[8] - The EU's crude steel production in November 2025 was 102 million tons, down 4.67% year-on-year[10] Market Performance - Major global stock indices saw gains: Nikkei 225 up 2.5%, Shanghai Composite up 1.9%, and S&P 500 up 1.4% for the week ending December 26, 2025[6] - Commodity prices rose significantly, with COMEX copper up 6.7% and London gold up 4.4%[6] - The US dollar index fell by 0.7%, while the Chinese yuan appreciated by 0.5% against the dollar[6] Investment Trends - The Chinese stock market is expected to stabilize above 4000 points, indicating a potential "transformation bull" market[27] - Emerging technologies are projected to be the main investment focus for 2025, with cyclical finance as a potential dark horse[27] - The risk premium for the Shanghai Composite relative to the 10Y government bond has decreased, indicating improved market sentiment[20] Sector Analysis - The average price of liquid argon has nearly doubled year-on-year, indicating strong demand in the mechanical sector[53] - The insurance sector is seeing a valuation recovery, benefiting from asset reallocation by residents[19] - The real estate market is experiencing a seasonal rebound, with increased transactions in Beijing following relaxed purchase restrictions[19]