资本补充工具月报(11月1日-11月30日):3-10Y二永债配置价值凸显-20251229
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-12-29 13:08
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The allocation value of 3 - 10Y secondary and perpetual bonds (Two - Yong Bonds) of banks is prominent. It is recommended to focus on AA+ and above - rated 3 - 10Y bonds with high interest - rate differentials, especially the 5Y AAA - perpetual bonds. For insurance and securities firm subordinated bonds, 3 - 10Y bonds of each rating are at a relatively high historical percentile and can be allocated opportunistically [2][3] - In November, the supply of Two - Yong Bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The net financing scale also increased. In the secondary market, the yields and credit spreads of secondary capital bonds generally fluctuated downward (except for AA+ varieties), the yields of perpetual bonds declined but spreads rose, and medium - and long - term bonds performed well [2][27] - In November, the net financing scale of insurance subordinated bonds increased year - on - year, while that of securities firm subordinated bonds decreased year - on - year. In the secondary market, except for 10 - year bonds, the yields and credit spreads of other remaining - term securities firm subordinated bonds and insurance capital - supplementary bonds generally declined [2][62] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bank Two - Yong Bonds 3.1.1 Primary Market and Approval Quota Usage - Issuance Scale: In November, the supply of Two - Yong Bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, with a total issuance scale of 268.3 billion yuan, including 143.7 billion yuan of secondary capital bonds and 124.6 billion yuan of perpetual bonds. The total issuance in the first 11 months was about 1.58 trillion yuan, with secondary capital bonds at 781.06 billion yuan and perpetual bonds at 800 billion yuan [5] - Total Repayment Amount: In November, the total repayment amount of Two - Yong Bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, amounting to about 174.7 billion yuan. The total repayment in the first 11 months was about 1.16 trillion yuan, reaching a year - on - year high since 2022 [13] - Net Financing: The net financing scale of bank Two - Yong Bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year in November, reaching 93.6 billion yuan. The net financing in the first 11 months was 422.96 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease mainly due to a slightly smaller issuance scale than in 2024 and a year - on - year increase in total repayment. The net financing in the first 11 months mainly came from state - owned large - scale banks [14][17] - Approval Quota and Usage: As of November 30, the remaining quota of bank Two - Yong Bonds to be issued was 1.44 trillion yuan. State - owned large - scale banks had the fastest issuance progress, while joint - stock banks and rural commercial banks had relatively slow progress [25] 3.1.2 Secondary Market - Interest Rate Differential and Yield: The yields and credit spreads of secondary capital bonds generally fluctuated downward (except for AA+ varieties), the yields of perpetual bonds declined but spreads rose, and medium - and long - term bonds performed well. The spreads of 5 - 10Y bonds (except AA -) were relatively large, and the 5Y perpetual bonds, especially the AAA - variety, might have high cost - effectiveness [27][30] - Trading Volume and Turnover Rate: In November, the trading volume of Two - Yong Bonds increased month - on - month, with state - owned large - scale banks having the largest month - on - month increase in both secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds. The turnover rates of joint - stock banks increased significantly, ranking first among various types of banks [48][52] 3.2 Securities Firm and Insurance Subordinated Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - Issuance Scale: In November, the issuance scale of securities firm subordinated bonds increased slightly, with 19 bonds issued totaling 28.75 billion yuan. The issuance of insurance company bonds remained stable, with 5 capital - supplementary bonds and 1 perpetual bond issued, totaling 15.57 billion yuan [54] - Net Financing: The net financing scale of insurance subordinated bonds increased year - on - year in November, while that of securities firm subordinated bonds decreased year - on - year. From January to November 2025, the net financing scale of insurance subordinated bonds decreased year - on - year, while that of securities firm subordinated bonds increased year - on - year [62] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Interest Rate Differential and Yield: Except for 10 - year bonds, the yields and credit spreads of other remaining - term securities firm subordinated bonds and insurance capital - supplementary bonds generally declined. The yields of 1 - year securities firm subordinated bonds and 3 - year insurance capital - supplementary bonds declined more significantly. The 3 - and 10 - year bonds of each rating were at a relatively high historical percentile and could be allocated opportunistically [65] - Trading Statistics: The trading activity of insurance company capital - supplementary bonds increased, while that of securities firm subordinated bonds decreased. In November, the turnover rates of insurance company capital - supplementary bonds and securities firm subordinated bonds were 9.32% and 9.84% respectively [70]