节后行情或是关键

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the equity market has shown strong performance with multiple hotspots driving the market upward, as evidenced by the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an eight-day winning streak, which has boosted investor confidence and mitigated pre-holiday risk aversion [2][3][8] - The report highlights that the market's trading volume has slightly increased, approaching 2 trillion, reflecting optimistic expectations for the post-holiday market [2][8] - The appreciation of the RMB against the USD has enhanced the domestic market's attractiveness to foreign capital, while macro policy has more operational space, contributing to positive news across various sectors such as commercial aviation, 6G, small metals, and batteries [2][8] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the A-share market's performance is critical post-holiday, with the current market showing signs of recovery, although trading volume remains below August highs, and some funds are still in a wait-and-see mode [3][10] - It suggests that the market's ability to break through previous highs after the New Year will be a key focus, with ongoing policy support expected to favor the equity market [10][12] - The report recommends a "barbell strategy" for A-share allocation, suggesting that investors should follow hot sectors like telecommunications, batteries, and commercial aviation while maintaining some cash reserves to wait for post-holiday trends [13] Group 3 - The bond market has shown a rare independent upward trend, with expectations of continued volatility, as the report notes that the bond market is in a phase of downward support but upward resistance [4][38] - It indicates that without significant positive news, the bond market is likely to remain in a range-bound state for the foreseeable future [5][38] Group 4 - The commodity market has experienced an upward trend, particularly in precious metals, with silver prices reaching new highs and gold prices also increasing, which is expected to continue in the medium to long term due to the decoupling from the USD [46][47] - The report suggests maintaining positions in gold as it is anticipated to lead the commodity market's strength [47]