GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-12-29 13:45Core Insights - The report highlights a significant growth opportunity in the energy storage sector, particularly in domestic large-scale storage and overseas energy storage markets, driven by favorable policies and increasing demand [1][11][19] - The domestic energy storage market is expected to see a substantial increase in installed capacity, with projections of a 111% year-on-year growth to 283.63 GWh in 2026 [4][42] - The overseas energy storage market is also anticipated to grow, with AI-integrated storage solutions expected to contribute significantly to demand in the U.S. [5][46] Domestic Large-Scale Storage - The domestic market is currently benefiting from policy incentives, leading to a confirmed upward trend in independent energy storage capacity [1][19] - The report notes that the price transmission from lithium carbonate and battery cell price increases is proceeding smoothly, with lithium carbonate prices rising to 92,600 CNY per ton by December 2025 [2][19] - The report anticipates that the independent energy storage capacity will continue to grow, supported by decreasing electricity prices for industrial and commercial users [3][38] Price Transmission and Subsidy Sustainability - The report estimates that the price increase of energy storage cells can be transmitted at a range of 0.05-0.1 CNY/Wh, with a 1 CNY/Wh increase in cell costs leading to a decrease in internal rate of return (IRR) by approximately 0.7% [2][35] - The sustainability of capacity price subsidies across provinces is supported by a general decline in electricity prices for industrial users, indicating that the subsidy mechanisms are likely to remain in place [3][38] Market Performance and Trends - The energy storage sector has significantly outperformed the broader market, with a 56.9% increase in the storage index compared to a 16.4% increase in the CSI 300 index from January to December 2025 [11][17] - Key players in the domestic large-scale storage market, such as Hai Bo Si Chuang and Ningde Times, have secured substantial supply agreements, reflecting confidence in the market's growth potential [19] Long-Term Outlook - The report conservatively estimates that the domestic energy storage market will see an average annual increase of over 200 GWh in installed capacity in the long term, driven by the need for renewable energy integration [4][42][45] - The AI-integrated storage solutions are projected to account for a significant portion of the U.S. energy storage demand by 2028, with estimates suggesting that they will represent 40% of total demand [5][53]