国投期货能源日报-20251229

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clear short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [4] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (short - term trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable) [4] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clear short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [4] - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clear short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [4] Report's Core Views - The geopolitical conflict has not fundamentally changed the pattern of oversupply in the energy market, and most energy products are expected to be under pressure [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - After the US - Ukraine talks, the geopolitical premium has a pulsed impact on oil prices, but the long - term concern about oversupply persists. The US Department of Energy predicts that in 2026, the average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil will be $55/barrel and $51/barrel respectively, and global inventories may increase by over 2 million barrels per day [1] Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors are short - term fluctuations. High - sulfur fuel oil has potential demand support, but high inventory pressure is significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak due to increased supply and lack of strong demand [2] Asphalt - Since December, the weekly shipment volume has been at a low level in the past four years. The supply - demand of asphalt is marginally loose, and it will return to a price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand [3]