国投期货化工日报-20251229

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: Strong bullish trend with good investment opportunities [1] - Polypropylene: Strong bullish trend with good investment opportunities [1] - Plastic: Moderate bullish trend, less operable [1] - Pure Benzene: Moderate bullish trend, less operable [1] - Styrene: Moderate bullish trend, less operable [1] - PX: Strong bullish trend with good investment opportunities [1] - PTA: Moderate bullish trend, less operable [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Moderate bearish trend, less operable [1] - Short Fiber: Moderate bullish trend, less operable [1] - Bottle Chip: Moderate bullish trend, less operable [1] - Methanol: Moderate bullish trend, less operable [1] - Urea: Strong bullish trend with good investment opportunities [1] - PVC: Strong bearish trend [1] - Caustic Soda: Strong bullish trend with good investment opportunities [1] - Soda Ash: Strong bullish trend with good investment opportunities [1] - Glass: Moderate bearish trend, less operable [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of the chemical market is relatively loose, and the market is affected by factors such as cost, demand, and inventory [2][3][5] - Different chemical products have different market trends and investment opportunities, and investors need to make decisions based on specific product analysis [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main futures contracts of olefins fluctuated within the day. The supply is relatively loose, and the willingness of producers to stabilize the market is prominent [2] - The main futures contracts of plastics and polypropylene fluctuated narrowly. The supply of polyethylene remains high, and the demand of downstream industries is decreasing. The demand for polypropylene is in the off - season, and the short - term demand release is limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene fluctuated narrowly within the day. The port inventory is rising, but the supply - demand pressure may ease in the future. Consider long - short spreads on the long - term [3] - The main futures contract of styrene continued to rise within the day. The market sentiment is bullish, and the supply - demand fundamentals are improving [3] Polyester - PX price is under pressure due to high valuation and weak downstream demand. PTA follows the decline. PX may adjust in the short term and maintain a strong expectation in the medium term [5] - The weekly output of ethylene glycol is reduced, and the port inventory is rising. The market is weak in the short term but may improve in the second quarter. It is under long - term pressure [5] - Short fiber inventory is low, but it is in the off - season. The long - term supply - demand pattern is good. Bottle chip demand is weakening, and it is driven by cost [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market is bullish. The port inventory increased last week but may enter the destocking cycle in the medium term. Pay attention to the long - short spreads [6] - The urea market is firm. The supply is tightening, but it may increase this week. The short - term market may decline slightly [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC fluctuated within the day. The supply is high, the demand is low, and it may operate in the low - level range [7] - Caustic soda declined within the day. The profit is compressed, the supply pressure is high, and the upward space is limited [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash declined within the day. The supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to short on rebounds. Consider the long - glass short - soda ash strategy [8] - Glass fluctuated within the day. The inventory pressure is large, the demand is insufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [8]