国投期货贵金属日报-20251229

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Platinum: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Palladium: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core View of the Report - Precious metals fluctuated sharply today; recent US data favors the continuation of interest rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions have emerged between Israel and Iran, as well as the US and Venezuela [1] - After gold broke through the previous high and set a new all - time high last Monday, the precious metals' upward trend was strengthened, silver, platinum, and palladium entered a rapid rally phase, and the gold - silver ratio fell below 60 [1] - There is no obvious news driving the market, and capital sentiment dominates the fluctuations. Domestic and foreign exchanges have successively adjusted margins and trading limits. The short - term market volatility is extremely high, so participation should be cautious, and a large pullback caused by capital withdrawal should be guarded against [1] - After palladium's listing, the increase was too large, and it is far from the delivery time. The short - term speculative atmosphere in the market is strong, and capital sentiment dominates, causing greater fluctuations in the platinum and palladium trading floors [2] - In terms of arbitrage, the fundamentals of platinum are stronger than those of palladium, and the platinum - palladium price difference has widened to 160 yuan/gram. There is a possibility that the price difference between the two will widen further [2] - The long - term trend shows that the fundamentals of platinum continue to be in short supply, and the medium - term upward logic has not been broken. There is a possibility that long - position funds will cover their positions on dips. Recently, the implied volatility (IV) has increased, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling put options [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Geopolitical News - As US President Trump is about to meet with Israeli Prime Minister in Washington, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Iran is in an unprecedented all - out war with the US, Europe, and Israel. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu are scheduled to meet on Monday, with the Iranian nuclear issue as the core topic. Pezeshkian warned that the Iranian military is fully prepared and will counter any new aggression [2] - In the US - Ukraine presidential meeting, Zelensky said that the US - Ukraine security guarantee has been 100% agreed, while Trump said it has reached 95%. Trump talked with Putin before meeting Zelensky. Trump described the current progress as "very close to reaching an agreement", but Russia and Ukraine have not reached an agreement on key territorial issues; a three - party meeting is not ruled out [3] - US President Trump said that the US military carried out a secret strike on a factory in Venezuela on the night of the 24th, and claimed that this move reduced drug trading volume by 97%. Venezuela has not responded yet [3] Precious Metals Market Analysis - The platinum - palladium price difference has widened to 160 yuan/gram, and there is a possibility of further widening. The platinum's internal - external price difference once exceeded 100 yuan/gram last Friday, and the cross - market reverse arbitrage is theoretically feasible, which has effectively stimulated the entry of cross - market arbitrage funds, and the internal - external price difference has quickly converged [2]