地方债周报：26Q1地方债已披露将发行1.68万亿元-20251229

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in 2025 and the planned issuance in 2026Q1, covering aspects such as net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and trading volume [1][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market Issuance Situation - Net Financing: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 2 billion yuan, with a net financing decrease of 31.2 billion yuan. The issuance volume was 2 billion yuan, and the repayment volume was 5.2 billion yuan, resulting in a net repayment of 3.2 billion yuan. Only new special bonds were issued, amounting to 2 billion yuan [1][9]. - Issuance Terms: The 20 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion this week (59%), and the proportion of 10 - year and above bonds was 84%, showing a decline compared to last week. The issuance proportions of 5 - year, 10 - year, and 20 - year bonds were 16%, 25%, and 59% respectively, with the 20 - year bond proportion increasing significantly and the 10 - year bond proportion decreasing by about 11 percentage points [1][11]. - Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds: No special refinancing bonds were issued this week. In 2025, a total of 2.3097 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds were disclosed for issuance, including 2 trillion yuan of special bonds for replacing hidden debts. Jiangsu, Hunan, Henan, and Guizhou had 251.1 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, 122.7 billion yuan, and 117.6 billion yuan respectively in special bonds for replacing hidden debts. As of the end of this week, 1.3668 trillion yuan of special special bonds were disclosed for issuance in 2025, with Jiangsu, Guangdong, Henan, and Yunnan issuing 128.9 billion yuan, 112.7 billion yuan, 76 billion yuan, and 73 billion yuan respectively [2][13][15]. - Issuance Spreads: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 24.3bp, widening compared to last week. The 20 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 25.3bp. The weighted average issuance spreads of 5 - year, 10 - year, and 20 - year bonds widened. Hunan and Guangdong had weighted average issuance spreads exceeding 20bp [1][24]. - Fund - Raising Allocations: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of new special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (28%), transportation infrastructure (17%), land reserve (17%), affordable housing projects (11%), and social undertakings (11%). The proportion of land reserve investment increased by 17.1% compared to 2024, while cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 8.5% [2][26]. - Issuance Plans: As of the end of this week, 34 regions disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the fourth quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance volumes in October and November, the total disclosed issuance volume for the fourth quarter was about 1.65 trillion yuan, with 176 billion yuan in December. The planned issuances of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the fourth quarter were 935.7 billion yuan and 713.5 billion yuan respectively. Some regions also disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the first quarter of 2026, with a total disclosed issuance volume of about 1.68 trillion yuan, including 692.5 billion yuan in January. The planned issuances of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter were 619.1 billion yuan and 1.0618 trillion yuan respectively. Next week, local government bonds are planned to issue 26 billion yuan, with a repayment volume of 8.6 billion yuan and a net financing of 17.4 billion yuan, a 20.6 - billion - yuan increase compared to this week [3][28][30]. 2. Secondary Market Situation - Secondary Spreads: This week, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year local government bonds were relatively high. The issuance spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 7 - year bonds widened, while those of other - term bonds narrowed. The secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year bonds reached 19.5bp and 16.4bp respectively. From the perspective of the historical quantiles in the past three years, the historical quantiles of the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 1 - year bonds were relatively high, at 83% and 61% respectively. Regionally, local government bonds with a term of less than 5 years in each region had relatively high secondary spreads, and the secondary spreads of 7 - 10 - year bonds in weak and medium - strength regions were also relatively high, ranging from 13bp to 16bp [5][33][34]. - Trading Volume: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased compared to last week. The trading volume of Xinjiang's local government bonds was large, reaching 37.5 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was relatively high, reaching 2.9%. The total trading volume of local government bonds this week was 295.9 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.54% [5][39].