格林大华期货早盘提示-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economic situation is turning weak, with a "turning weak" rating for the macro and financial global economy [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The uncertainty of the Fed is expected to peak from July to November 2026, potentially leading to a "flight from US assets" trend in the market. The global economy is starting to weaken as the US makes continuous policy mistakes and retreats globally, which will have a profound and disruptive impact on major asset classes [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Content Global Economic News - Nomura predicts that the new Fed chair will lead a rate cut in June, but there may be strong opposition within the FOMC, causing tension with the Trump administration. The uncertainty will likely peak from July to November 2026, leading to a possible "flight from US assets" trend [1] - The Israeli Prime Minister will meet with the US Secretary of State and the US President in Florida, possibly discussing a new strike on Iran's missile program. Iran's President says Iran is facing a "total war" and will respond more decisively to new US - Israeli "aggression" [1] - The White House plans to take control of the power grid from states to the federal government to accelerate AI data center grid connection, which is strongly opposed by state regulatory agencies. The White House insists on centralizing power to clear energy barriers [1] - US data centers are turning to aviation engines and diesel generators for "emergency" power as they can't wait for 7 - year grid access, leading to a surge in orders for some companies and higher costs and emissions [1] - Nvidia is leading the data center to switch to an 800V DC architecture to support 1MW single - cabinet power demand in 2027, triggering a reshuffle in the industry [1] - Groq's "high - order TPU" poses competitive pressure on Nvidia's GPU, which may be why Nvidia wants to acquire its assets [1] - As AI computing power approaches the physical limit on the ground, space computing power has become a new battlefield for computing power breakthroughs, with the US and China taking different approaches [1] Global Economic Logic - The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December, bought $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, and restarted the expansion of its balance sheet. Trump wants the next Fed chair to support "substantial rate cuts" [2] - Goldman Sachs analysts warn that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to early warning signs before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US issued a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relations with China to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer spending pattern, with high - income consumers remaining resilient and low - to - middle - income families cutting back [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield rose to 2.0% [2] - Google's AI infrastructure head says the company must double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve 1000 - fold growth in 4 - 5 years [2] - Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - JPMorgan strategists think the construction boom of AI data centers will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and economists worry about large - scale corporate layoffs as an economic warning sign [2] - The US is returning to the Monroe Doctrine, contracting globally, which will have a far - reaching impact on major asset classes [2]