节前情绪走弱资金获利流出，铂钯大幅回调

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - On December 29, platinum and palladium prices hit the daily limit down at the end of the session. The closing price of the GFEX platinum主力 contract was 634.35 yuan/gram, a 10% decline, and that of the palladium主力 contract was 494.1 yuan/gram, also a 10% decline [2]. - Due to pre - holiday sentiment weakening and capital profit - taking, platinum and palladium prices have significantly corrected, and continued vigilance against large - scale price fluctuations is required [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Platinum - Main Logic: After the correction, the domestic - foreign price difference of platinum has narrowed. As of the close on December 29, the GFEX platinum主力 contract had a premium of 39.13 yuan/gram over the NYMEX platinum (tax - included) at the domestic closing time, still higher than the import cost, indicating an arbitrage opportunity and a tendency for the price difference to converge in the future. However, due to issues such as hedging quota limitations, the short - term price difference may remain high. South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, faces risks in power supply and extreme weather in the future. The platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with relatively stable demand in the automotive catalyst sector, the hydrogen energy industry as an important future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will further amplify the long - term price elasticity [3]. - Outlook: With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro expectations, the platinum price is expected to fluctuate upward. In the short term, price fluctuations have intensified. It is advisable to trade cautiously during the holiday period, or take a wait - and - see approach for short - term trading. It is recommended to hold or temporarily take profits on long - platinum short - palladium and domestic - foreign positive arbitrage positions [3]. Palladium - Main Logic: The geopolitical situation in Russia is a key factor affecting the supply of palladium. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, leading to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. On the demand side, palladium faces significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is expected to ease, the short - term shortage of spot goods keeps the price firm, and with the Fed re - entering the interest rate - cut cycle, the palladium price has some support at the bottom [4]. - Outlook: With the short - term shortage of spot and a favorable macro environment, the palladium price is expected to fluctuate upward. However, in the short term, palladium may have entered an adjustment phase. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach for short - term trading and wait for the price to correct to an appropriate level. It is recommended to hold or temporarily take profits on long - platinum short - palladium and domestic - foreign positive arbitrage positions [4]. Commodity Indexes (December 29, 2025) - Comprehensive Indexes: The comprehensive index was 2339.89, a 0.59% decline; the commodity 20 index was 2687.93, a 0.42% decline; the industrial products index was 2258.87, a 0.70% decline [49]. - Non - ferrous Metals Index: On December 29, 2025, the non - ferrous metals index was 2676.44, with a daily decline of 0.01%, a 5 - day increase of 3.18%, a 1 - month increase of 6.45%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.95% [51].