炉料表现分化，关注冬储补库

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the mid - term outlook for most products is "oscillation", indicating a neutral stance on the short - to - medium - term investment in the black building materials industry [4][9][11][12][14][18][19] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy in 2026 remains positive with the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy. In the off - season, steel continues to reduce inventory, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. The futures market shows an oscillatory trend. With steel mills resuming production and the expectation of winter storage replenishment, iron ore prices are strong, while the coal - coke industry chain has increasing inventory, and the fourth round of coke price cuts has started, putting pressure on the futures market [3][4] - In the off - season, the fundamentals have few bright spots. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to boost the replenishment expectation, and there is an expectation of a price increase from the low level for furnace materials [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Elements - Iron Ore: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and port inventory continued to accumulate. Steel mills made small - scale replenishments, and there was strong game between upstream and downstream. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate. Spot prices are strong, but after the price increase, spot trading is poor [4][9] - Scrap Steel: Supply and demand are both weak. Steel mills have high inventory and slow down replenishment. The spot price of scrap steel has limited upward momentum. The leading steel enterprises in East China proposed a price cut of 30 yuan/ton last weekend, and the spot market is expected to follow the price cut [4][11] Carbon Elements - Coke: The cost side has shown signs of stabilizing. After the fourth - round price cut is implemented, the spot price is expected to stabilize, and the futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal. As the Chinese New Year approaches, the winter storage intensity increases, and the supply pressure will be relieved [4][12] - Coking Coal: The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally. There is still upward momentum for both futures and spot prices as the overall supply pressure will be alleviated with the improvement of Mongolian coal imports in January [4][13] Alloys - Silicon Manganese: The supply - demand pattern remains loose and is expected to become looser with the release of new production capacity in Inner Mongolia. The cost side currently supports the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the medium term [4][5][18] - Silicon Iron: Supply and demand are both weak. Alloy plants reduce production to match the declining demand. The cost of semi - coke still drags down the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [4][5][19] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Supply is expected to be disrupted, but the inventory of the mid - and downstream is moderately high. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [4][5][14] - Soda Ash: The overall supply - demand is in surplus. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [4][5][17] Steel - Spot market transactions are average. The profitability of steel mills has improved, and the decline in the output of five major steel products has slowed down. The demand is seasonally declining, but there is still support. The overall steel inventory continues to decline, but the mid - level inventory is still high year - on - year. The cost side shows differentiation, and the futures price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the pre - holiday replenishment rhythm [9] Commodity Index - On December 29, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures Commodity Index was 2339.89, down 0.59%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial product index was 2258.87, down 0.70%. The steel industry chain index on the same day had a daily increase of 0.11%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.02%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.99%, and a year - to - date decrease of 6.27% [105][107]