中信期货晨报：国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，铂、钯跌停-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas Macro: The US economic aggregate in Q3 exceeded expectations, but growth momentum showed signs of marginal slowdown. The consumer confidence index in December dropped to 89.1, lower than the market expectation of 91.0. The Fed is likely to adopt a more cautious and accommodative approach. Factory orders in the manufacturing sector recovered moderately, and the differentiation in high - end manufacturing deepened [6] - Domestic Macro: In November, demand recovery was slow, with consumption and investment under pressure, and the year - on - year decline in industrial profits widened. However, the cumulative profits from January to November still showed a slight positive growth, indicating the economy is "stabilizing at a low level" with policy support. There are industry differentiations, with the equipment manufacturing industry leading the growth (+7.2%, some industries with high growth), the raw material manufacturing industry accelerating (+22.1%), the consumer goods industry turning positive, and the automobile industry slightly weakening (-0.3%). Profit improvement mainly relies on supply contraction and price recovery, and may be constrained in the future if demand fails to pick up and the base increases [6] - Asset Views: The macro environment is still favorable for the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors, but short - term risks need to be watched out for. In the precious metals sector, the risk of volatility in silver increases after a sharp rise, and further corrections are possible. In the non - ferrous metals sector, there are opportunities to buy on dips for commodities with more supply disruptions, such as copper, aluminum, and tin. Attention should also be paid to lithium carbonate with good supply - demand performance. For the domestic equity sector, a defensive strategy is recommended at the end of the year and during the policy window period [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - Stock Index Futures: The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures all had negative daily and weekly fluctuations, but different monthly, quarterly, and annual changes. For example, the CSI 300 futures had a daily decline of 0.61%, a weekly decline of 0.61%, a monthly increase of 3.08%, a quarterly decline of 0.17%, and an annual increase of 17.58% [2] - Treasury Bond Futures: Most Treasury bond futures had negative daily and weekly fluctuations. For example, the 2 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decline of 0.07%, a weekly decline of 0.07%, etc [2] - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index was flat, and different currency pairs had various changes. For example, the euro - US dollar exchange rate had no change in pips, and the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate was flat daily but had other period - specific changes [2] - Interest Rates: Various interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate, 10Y Chinese Treasury bond yield, and 10Y US Treasury bond yield had different fluctuations [2] 3.2 Hot Industries - Different industries in the CITIC industry index had different price changes. The comprehensive finance, national defense and military industry, and petroleum and petrochemical industries had positive daily and weekly changes, while the pharmaceutical, food and beverage, and power equipment and new energy industries had negative daily and weekly changes [2] 3.3 Overseas Commodities - Energy: NYMEX WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 2.52%, while ICE Brent crude oil had a daily decline of 2.44%. NYMEX natural gas had a daily increase of 3.00%, and ICE UK natural gas was flat [2] - Precious Metals: COMEX gold and silver had significant increases, with COMEX gold having an annual increase of 72.85% and COMEX silver having a large annual increase [2] - Non - Ferrous Metals: LME copper, zinc, lead, etc. showed different price trends. LME copper had a flat daily price but positive changes over other periods [2] - Agricultural Products: CBOT soybeans, wheat, and other agricultural products had different price fluctuations. For example, CBOT soybeans had a daily decline of 0.37% [2] 3.4 Domestic Main Commodities - Different domestic commodities such as shipping (container shipping to Europe), precious metals (gold and silver), non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products had various daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes. For example, container shipping to Europe had a daily decline of 0.09%, and gold had a daily decline of 0.90% [3] 3.5 Viewpoints Summary - Financial: The stock market is waiting for a main line, and the bond market has disturbing factors. Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options to fluctuate, and Treasury bond futures to fluctuate [7] - Precious Metals: They are expected to rise in a volatile manner, with silver having greater elasticity [7] - Shipping: Attention should be paid to the resumption of voyages in the far - month contracts of container shipping to Europe [7] - Black Building Materials: The real - world pressure exists, and the disk performance is under pressure, with most varieties expected to fluctuate [7] - Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials: Wait for the macro - level to become clearer, with basic metals in a state of shock and consolidation [7] - Energy and Chemicals: The pattern of strong aromatics and weak olefins remains unchanged, and different chemical varieties have different short - term outlooks, mostly in a state of shock [9] - Agriculture: The market is worried about the supply, with different agricultural products having different short - term trends, such as soybean meal leading the near - month contracts to rise [9]