五矿期货农产品早报-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global new - crop soybean production has been marginally reduced, and the total output is now equal to the total demand. The bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. With large domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories but fewer near - month purchases, the de - stocking rate is expected to accelerate, and soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [4]. - For palm oil, the outlook for first - quarter inventory depends on production and export data. If production remains high and exports are sluggish, prices may decline unilaterally; if production returns to a lower - than - normal trend, it could stimulate buying and drive up prices. Short - term operations guided by high - frequency data are recommended [8]. - For sugar, the raw sugar price has fallen below the support level of Brazil's ethanol conversion price. After the northern hemisphere's sugar harvest in February next year, international sugar prices may rebound. With a decreasing supply of imported sugar in China, the price may continue to rebound in the short term [12]. - For cotton, the market had anticipated the reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang. The current price is at a recent high with increased volatility. Fundamentally, the off - season is not weak, and the supply - demand balance, combined with positive expectations, supports the price. It is advisable to wait for a pullback to go long [16][17]. - For eggs, after a price drop, there is reluctance to sell in the spot market, and with upcoming consumer stocking and chicken culling, the market outlook is improving. However, the absolute supply pressure still weighs on the spot and near - month contracts. The futures market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. Short - term selling on rallies for near - month contracts and long - term attention to the upper pressure for far - month contracts are recommended [20]. - For hogs, the combination of reduced group sales and the entry of second - round fattening has led to a less - than - expected price drop after the Winter Solstice, causing more short - covering in the futures market. Spot strength may continue in the short term. However, the current supply tightness is mainly structural, and the large - scale supply and heavy pig weights remain the main factors. A strategy of selling on rallies for near - month contracts and long - term attention to the lower support for far - month contracts is maintained [23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Market Conditions: On Monday, CBOT soybeans closed lower. Brazil's soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and Argentina has good soil moisture but less rainfall in some areas in the future. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 30 yuan/ton on Monday, with weak trading volume and high pick - up volume. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume at oil mills to be 2.0644 million tons, up from 1.8404 million tons last week. Last week, feed enterprises' inventory days increased by 0.22 days to 9.45 days, soybean inventory decreased by 400,000 tons (but was about 500,000 tons higher year - on - year), and oil mills' soybean meal inventory increased by 30,000 tons (about 460,000 tons higher year - on - year) [2]. - Weather: Forecasts show that there will be more rainfall in the main soybean - growing areas of Brazil in the next two weeks, while the main producing provinces in Argentina will have less rainfall. The weather situation needs continuous monitoring [2]. Oils - Market Conditions: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 9.12% in the first 25 days of December compared to the same period. Ship - tracking data indicates mixed export trends. In the domestic market on Monday, palm oil prices declined slightly, while rapeseed oil prices rose, and domestic palm oil inventory is high. The basis for various oils is as follows: Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil 05 - 40 (0) yuan/ton, Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil 05 + 500 (0) yuan/ton, and East China rapeseed oil 05 + 700 (0) yuan/ton [6]. - Argentina Situation: Argentina exported 6.48 million tons of soybean oil in the first 11 months of this year, less than in 2024. With reduced soybean processing expected, further shipments are likely to be lower than last year. Argentina's soybean inventory at the beginning of December was 4.5 million tons, lower than last year [6]. Sugar - Market Conditions: On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices dropped slightly. The closing price of the May contract was 5,253 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton or 0.61%. Spot prices in various regions also declined. The basis between Guangxi spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 57 yuan/ton [10]. - Import and Production Data: In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November, the cumulative import was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. In the 2025/26 sugar - making season as of the end of November, imports were 1.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons. Brazil's mid - southern region's sugar production and cane - crushing volume in the second half of November decreased significantly year - on - year, and India's cumulative sugar production as of December 15 increased year - on - year [11]. Cotton - Market Conditions: On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices decreased. The closing price of the May contract was 14,435 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton or 0.69%. The spot price of the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B increased, and the basis between the spot and the main contract was 1,106 yuan/ton [14]. - Industry News: In December 2025, Xinjiang held a meeting to discuss reducing cotton planting area. In November, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons. As of December 26, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.7%, and the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons [15]. Eggs - Market Conditions: Yesterday, the national egg prices were generally stable with minor adjustments. The average price in the main producing areas rose slightly to 3 yuan/jin. The supply was sufficient, but the downstream market had slow sales, and traders were less willing to buy. It is expected that today's prices may be stable in some areas and decline in others [19]. Hogs - Market Conditions: Yesterday, domestic hog prices mostly rose, with some areas seeing small declines. The average price in Henan increased by 0.16 yuan to 12.58 yuan/kg, while in Sichuan, it decreased by 0.04 yuan to 12.67 yuan/kg. Some farmers reduced their sales at the end of the month, which was beneficial to prices, but the slaughterhouses' acceptance of high prices was limited, and the trading volume was low [22].