Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year due to some funds cashing in profits, the long - term view is to go long on dips as the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the short - term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances, and a quick - in - quick - out strategy is suitable [7]. - For precious metals, they are in an accelerating upward phase, but may face short - term corrections in January next year. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper and aluminum have relatively strong price support, while zinc and lead may be affected by the departure of long positions [11][13]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the iron ore price is expected to run within the oscillation range [31][34]. - For energy chemicals, the strategies for different products vary. For example, for crude oil, a low - buy - high - sell strategy is maintained with short - term waiting and seeing [52]. - For agricultural products, different products also have different price trends and trading strategies. For example, for live pigs, a strategy of short - term long and long - term short is recommended [75]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Stock Index - Market Information: The State Administration for Market Regulation deployed key tasks for 2026, including anti - monopoly work; from January to November, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 3.1% year - on - year; tobacco advertising and business promotion expenses of tobacco enterprises cannot be deducted; the auction electricity price of the largest power grid operator in the United States may double [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the long - term view is to go long on dips as policy support remains unchanged [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. From January to November, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. The National Development and Reform Commission held a private enterprise symposium [5]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted a 4823 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on Monday, with a net investment of 4150 billion yuan [6]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and a quick - in - quick - out strategy is suitable [7]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Shanghai gold and silver prices fell. Trump's remarks on the Fed and the selection of the new Fed chair have an impact on market expectations, and international silver prices hit a new high [8]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Precious metals may face short - term corrections in January next year, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: After the sharp adjustment of precious metals, copper prices rose and then fell sharply. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social inventory increased [10]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply of copper mines is tight, and the price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 95,500 - 99,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum - Market Information: After the sharp adjustment of precious metals, aluminum prices rose and then fell. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, and LME aluminum inventory decreased [12]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,200 - 22,600 yuan/ton [13]. Zinc - Market Information: The Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. LME zinc inventory and domestic social inventory decreased [14]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The zinc industry's fundamentals are weak, and the departure of long positions may impact prices [15]. Lead - Market Information: The Shanghai lead index fell slightly. LME lead inventory increased, and domestic social inventory increased slightly [16]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply - demand of lead is weak, and the departure of long positions may impact prices [16]. Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices rose and then fell. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron rose [17]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The excess pressure of nickel is still large, but the short - term bottom may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see [17]. Tin - Market Information: The Shanghai tin main contract price fell. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The spot and futures prices of lithium carbonate fell. The contract decreased its position significantly [20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to wait and see or try light - position call options. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 112,100 - 122,500 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina - Market Information: The alumina index fell. The spot price was at a discount, and the futures inventory decreased [22]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2400 - 2900 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless steel main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [25]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to policy implementation [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of the casting aluminum alloy main contract rose. The inventory decreased [26]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased [30]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the winter storage willingness is weak [31]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The iron ore main contract price rose. The spot price was at a premium, and the inventory increased [32]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The iron ore price is expected to run within the oscillation range, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - Market Information: The glass main contract price rose. The inventory increased, and the trading volume decreased [35]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The glass market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [35]. - Soda Ash - Market Information: The soda ash main contract price rose. The inventory decreased, and the trading volume decreased [36]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash has not been significantly alleviated, and the market rebound is limited [36]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rose slightly. The spot prices were at a premium [37]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The future market trend is affected by the black sector and cost factors. Attention should be paid to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [39]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon - Market Information: The industrial silicon futures main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory increased [40]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price is expected to fluctuate with the market, and attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [41]. - Polysilicon - Market Information: The polysilicon futures main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [42]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Under strong supervision, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to spot transactions [44]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly. The tire start - up rate was slightly worse, and the inventory increased [46]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to wait and see and partially close the hedging position [50]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The INE main crude oil futures price fell. The inventories of refined oil products had different changes [51]. - Strategy Viewpoint: A low - buy - high - sell strategy is maintained, and short - term waiting and seeing are recommended [52]. Methanol - Market Information: The regional spot prices of methanol fell, and the main futures contract price was stable [53]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The methanol market is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - Market Information: The regional spot prices of urea were stable, and the main futures contract price was stable [55]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The urea market is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner, and it is recommended to go long on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The pure benzene spot and futures prices were stable, and the styrene spot price rose while the futures price fell [57]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC05 contract price fell. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [59]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG05 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [62]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts, and the valuation needs to be compressed in the medium - term [63]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA05 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory decreased [64]. - Strategy Viewpoint: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage after short - term de - stocking. Pay attention to the callback risk in the short - term and the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [66]. p - Xylene - Market Information: The PX03 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [67]. - Strategy Viewpoint: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the callback risk in the short - term and the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [68]. Polyethylene PE - Market Information: The PE futures price fell, and the spot price rose. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [69]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [70]. Polypropylene PP - Market Information: The PP futures price fell, and the spot price was stable. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [71]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Information: The domestic pig price mainly rose. The supply and demand were in a complex state [74]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The spot price may be strong in the short - term, and it is recommended to short after the near - month rebound [75]. Eggs - Market Information: The national egg price was mainly stable. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was weak [76]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term and pay attention to the long - term pressure [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The CBOT soybean price fell. The domestic soybean and meal inventories were large, and the demand was weak [79]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: The Malaysian palm oil production and export data changed. The domestic palm oil inventory was high, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased [81]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to observe high - frequency data and conduct short - term operations [83]. Sugar - Market Information: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The domestic and international sugar production and import data changed [84]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The international sugar price may rebound after February next year, and the domestic sugar price may continue to rebound in the short - term [86]. Cotton - Market Information: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell. The domestic cotton production increased, and the import was restricted [87]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [89].
宏观金融类：文字早评2025/12/30-20251230
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-12-30 00:54