五矿期货有色金属日报-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term sentiment of precious metals has ebbed, but the copper price still has strong support due to tight supply in the copper industry and potential downstream consumption recovery. The aluminum price has a strong support as well, with low inventory and possible consumption increase after price decline. Lead shows a supply - demand weak pattern, and low inventory and supply contraction in the recycling end drive the price up. Zinc's fundamentals are weak, and the inventory is decreasing. Tin's supply has limited upward momentum, and demand is supported by emerging fields. Nickel's short - term price bottom may have emerged. The price of lithium carbonate is affected by capital games, and there is an expectation of supply - demand repair. Alumina's supply - side reform needs actual production cuts. Stainless steel may rise if the nickel ore supply quota tightens. Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strongly volatile [2][5][8][11][13][15][19][22][25][28]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - Market Information: The London copper rose 0.45% to $12,187 per ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 96,060 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,450 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 21,000 tons [1]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply of copper mines is tight, and the copper price has strong support. If the price continues to adjust, downstream consumption may improve. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 95,500 - 99,000 yuan per ton, and for the London copper 3M is $12,000 - 12,500 per ton [2]. Aluminum - Market Information: The London aluminum fell 0.2% to $2,950 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 22,320 yuan per ton. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased [4]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The downstream demand is in the off - season, but the low inventory and possible consumption recovery support the price. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,200 - 22,600 yuan per ton, and for the London aluminum 3M is $2,920 - 2,980 per ton [5]. Lead - Market Information: The Shanghai lead index fell 0.40% to 17,477 yuan per ton, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [7]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The primary lead supply is loose, the secondary lead supply is contracting, and the lead market is in a supply - demand weak pattern. Low inventory and supply contraction in the recycling end drive the price up, but the exit of long - positions may impact the price [8]. Zinc - Market Information: The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.34% to 23,271 yuan per ton, and the zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons [10]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The zinc ore inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals are weak. The exit of long - positions may impact the price [11]. Tin - Market Information: On December 29, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract fell 1.17% to 334,590 yuan per ton. The supply has limited upward momentum, and demand is supported by emerging fields [12]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan per ton, and for the overseas London tin is $39,000 - 43,000 per ton [13]. Nickel - Market Information: The Shanghai nickel main contract fell 0.81% to 126,080 yuan per ton. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel - iron price rose [14]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The short - term price bottom of nickel may have emerged. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 110,000 - 135,000 yuan per ton, and for the London nickel 3M is $13,000 - 16,000 per ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate fell 2.03%, and the LC2605 contract fell 8.96% [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price of lithium carbonate is affected by capital games, and there is an expectation of supply - demand repair. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 112,100 - 122,500 yuan per ton [19]. Alumina - Market Information: On December 29, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.04% to 2,720 yuan per ton. The inventory of futures decreased [21]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The ore price is expected to decline, and the alumina smelting capacity is in surplus. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,400 - 2,900 yuan per ton [22]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless steel main contract fell 0.35% to 12,910 yuan per ton. The social inventory decreased [24]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Policy expectations drive up raw material prices and inventory reduction. It is recommended to buy at low prices and pay attention to policy implementation [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The main AD2602 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose 0.94% to 21,590 yuan per ton, and the inventory decreased [27]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly volatile due to cost support and supply disturbances [28].