金信期货日刊-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp decline of Shanghai Silver in the afternoon of December 29, 2025, was the result of the resonance of macro - expectation reversal, concentrated speculation exit, and technical breakdown. Although short - term fluctuations have increased, the medium - term logic has not been completely broken [3]. - For A - shares, except for the Shanghai Composite Index's 9 - day consecutive positive trend, the other indexes showed high - level oscillations. The Shanghai Stock Index is expected to have limited adjustment, and low - buying is recommended if it doesn't effectively break below the 3910 - 3920 support range [5][6]. - Due to the continuous short - squeeze in silver and increased market volatility, caution is advised when participating in the gold market [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Shanghai Silver - Reasons for decline: The probability of a US interest rate cut in January dropped to about 15%, increasing the opportunity cost of non - interest - bearing silver; there was a rush to take profits, with significant net capital outflows; geopolitical risk - aversion receded; and policy and delivery factors influenced the market [3]. - Operation suggestions: In the short term, focus on the 17,000 yuan/kg support. If it rebounds quickly, observe capital inflows and the recovery of the 19,000 integer mark. In the medium term, due to the tight supply and low inventory, one should not take a unilateral short position. It is recommended to control positions strictly, set stop - losses, and focus on short - term operations [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The market showed a significant decline, dragging down the entire index. Technically, the daily - line upward trend is intact, while small - cycle adjustments are occurring, with limited expected adjustment intensity. Low - buying is recommended if the Shanghai Stock Index does not effectively break below the 3910 - 3920 support range [5]. 3.3 Gold - Due to the continuous short - squeeze in silver and increased market fluctuations, caution is advised when participating in the gold market [9]. 3.4 Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus is intensifying. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, a wide - range oscillation approach is recommended, with high - selling and low - buying [11][12]. 3.5 Glass - Technically, there are signs of bottom - stabilization recently, and bottom - fishing buying can be considered. The daily melting volume has been slightly decreasing, and inventory has accumulated this week, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance policies [15][16]. 3.6 Methanol - As of December 24, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 193,700 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 207,700 tons, while that in South China decreased by 14,000 tons. The market in the sales area is relatively strong under multiple positive factors [17]. 3.7 Pulp - As of December 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports of Chinese pulp was 1.906 million tons, a decrease of 87,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 4.4%. The inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks, and the market is expected to be in an oscillating state [20].