氧化铝：持续反弹还需越过几重山？

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - The continuous rebound of alumina prices still faces triple pressures, and attention should be paid to domestic and foreign policy changes [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Smelting End - Focus on Domestic Policy Implementation - On December 26, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission's article raised market expectations for alumina supply contraction policies, leading to a significant rebound in futures prices [6] - The latest weekly alumina production is 183.8 million tons, and the weekly inventory is 517 million tons, with a weekly increase of 5.7 million tons. Since July, production has remained high, and demand is close to the policy ceiling, resulting in continuous oversupply. To achieve supply - demand balance, about 2.6 billion tons/year of production capacity (2.8% of the total) needs to be cut. In 2026, with 13.4 billion tons of planned projects, the oversupply pattern may intensify [7] 2. Ore End - Focus on Guinea's Price - Support Willingness - The short - term oversupply at the smelting end is difficult to change, and the bauxite price at the cost end is the core contradiction. After the rainy season in Guinea, ore shipments increased, and the restart of the AXIS mine in early December exacerbated the bauxite oversupply. The latest sea - floating inventory of bauxite reached 15.01 billion tons, and the port inventory was 26.02 billion tons. High inventory and shrinking downstream profits drove the bauxite price down. A large Guinean mine will lower the Q1 2026 long - term price by $7.5 to $66.5/ton [14] - The reversal of bauxite prices depends on large - scale overseas supply contraction. The FOB cost of Guinean bauxite is in the range of $20 - $50/ton, and the sea freight from Guinea to China is $20 - $25/ton. The CIF price of $60 - $65/ton is expected to be a strong support, corresponding to an alumina cost support of 2450 - 2550 yuan/ton. If the price falls below this range, the Guinean government may have a strong willingness to support prices [15] 3. Futures Warehouse Receipts - Need to Be Digested - The standard warehouse receipts of alumina have a 180 - day validity period. The concentrated expiration of warehouse receipts in December, January, and February may drive the futures price to be at a discount for delivery, suppressing the short - term sharp rebound of futures prices [23]