Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The Chinese stock market cycle is shifting from 'expectation-driven' to 'profit-driven', with profit realization and mild valuation expansion as the core drivers of returns. Chinese corporate profits may increase by 14% next year and 12% in 2027, while the valuation expansion may be around 10%. [3] - Global funds are re - investing in the Chinese stock market. The Chinese technology sector, with its valuation advantages, complete industrial ecosystem, and large - scale manufacturing capabilities, is becoming a new destination for global funds to layout AI. [2][3] - In 2026, the risk of a significant rise in the Chinese stock market is much higher than that of a significant decline, with multiple positive factors including the acceleration of AI applications, anti - involution, and the re - allocation of domestic liquidity from deposits to the stock market. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, the major indices of the two markets fluctuated and closed with mixed results. The commercial space sector continued to strengthen. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.13 trillion yuan, with little change. The CSI 500 index closed at 7430 points, down 28 points or - 0.38%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7594 points, down 11 points or - 0.15%; the SSE 300 index closed at 4639 points, down 17 points or - 0.38%; the SSE 50 index closed at 3034 points, down 10 points or - 0.35%. [1] - Among industry and theme ETFs, those with the highest gains were aerospace ETFs, general aviation ETF funds, aviation ETFs, China - South Korea semiconductor ETFs, and military industry leader ETFs; those with the highest losses were rare metal ETFs, gold stock ETFs, and Southern Power ETFs. [1] - Among the sector indices of the two markets, those with the highest gains were forestry, aerospace equipment, plastics, carbon fiber, and chemical fiber indices; those with the highest losses were energy metals, lithium mines, fisheries, automobile services, and rare metal indices. [1] - The settlement funds of CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 300, and SSE 50 index stock index futures had net outflows of 7.7 billion, 6.7 billion, 4.5 billion, and 1.3 billion yuan respectively. [1] Important Information - The National Fiscal Work Conference was held. It will implement a special action to boost consumption, continue to allocate funds to support the replacement of consumer goods with new ones, and adjust and optimize the subsidy scope and standards. It will also coordinate various funds such as employment subsidy funds and unemployment insurance funds to support enterprises in stabilizing and expanding employment and promoting employment and entrepreneurship of key groups, and increase residents' income through multiple channels. [1] - The SASAC stated that central enterprises, as an important national strategic scientific and technological force, will shoulder the mission of promoting high - level scientific and technological self - reliance, strengthen original innovation and key core technology research, build national key laboratories, focus on future competitive fields, and deepen the construction of the original technology source. [1] - The People's Bank of China has issued an action plan for further strengthening the digital RMB management service system and related financial infrastructure. The new - generation digital RMB measurement framework, management system, operation mechanism, and ecological system will be officially launched on January 1, 2026. [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange officially issued the 'Guidelines for the Application of the Listing Review Rules No. 9 - Application of the Fifth Listing Standard of the Science and Technology Innovation Board by Commercial Rocket Enterprises', which means the IPO details of commercial rocket enterprises on the Science and Technology Innovation Board are out. When applying, they should at least achieve the first successful orbit entry of the payload launched by a medium - large launch vehicle using reusable technology. [1] - In the past week, there has been a surge in in - depth research reports and phone conferences related to 'commercial space'. Many securities firms have issued a series of research reports in multiple industries, and analysts in communication, computer, and machinery have 'cross - border' research. There were 26 themed phone conferences in the past week. [1] - Among the 340 ETFs established this year, more than 170 are technology - related theme products, accounting for more than 50% of the total new - issued products this year. There are 20 ETFs related to the Science and Technology Innovation Comprehensive Index and 18 ETFs related to the artificial intelligence theme. In addition, many companies have made arrangements in sub - sectors such as science and technology innovation semiconductors, science and technology innovation chips, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 index. [2] - Four lithium iron phosphate enterprises, Hunan Yueneng, Wanrun New Energy, Defang Nano, and Anda Technology, have successively announced maintenance and production reduction plans. The maintenance and production reduction time is concentrated in January 2026 for one month. These four enterprises cover about 50% of the lithium iron phosphate market share, and their collective production reduction is expected to have a significant impact on the supply - demand pattern in January. [2] - Since November 2024, the winning bid price of Chinese wind turbines (excluding towers) has never been lower than 1400 yuan/kW, which is the cost line of most wind turbines. While the photovoltaic manufacturing industry is still in a loss and price war, the wind power manufacturing industry has taken the lead in getting out of the 'involution'. [2] - Nomura expects that the new Fed chairman will lead a rate cut in June, but there may be strong opposition within the FOMC to further rate cuts, which may lead to tensions between the Fed and the Trump administration. This uncertainty is expected to break out from July to November next year, and the market may see a trend of 'fleeing from US assets'. [2] - NVIDIA is leading the data center to switch to the 800V DC power architecture to support the AI computing power demand of 1MW per cabinet in 2027. Goldman Sachs said that the focus of capital expenditure will be re - structured, liquid cooling and DC power distribution will become the mainstream, and the industrial chain will face reshuffle. The first - round hardware upgrade cycle has started, and a critical point may be reached around 2027. [2] - The Israeli Prime Minister will meet with the US Secretary of State and the US President in Florida, and may discuss the issue of hitting Iran's missile project again with the US side. The Iranian President said that Iran is facing a 'full - scale war' with the US, Israel, and Europe. Iran will respond more decisively to any new 'aggressive acts' by the US and Israel. [2] Market Logic - On Monday, the major indices of the two markets fluctuated and closed with mixed results, and the commercial space sector continued to strengthen. Goldman Sachs judged that the global stock market has entered the 'optimistic stage' of the bull market, and the profits in 2026 will continue to support the market. If dividends are included, the total return rate will reach 15%. The market is shifting from valuation repair to profit - driven, and geographical diversification is beginning to take effect. The strategy emphasizes staying in the market and strengthening diversified allocation. As of December 20, the ETFs investing in Chinese assets globally have received a cumulative net inflow of 83.1 billion US dollars in 2025. In terms of industry distribution, the technology sector has received the most foreign capital inflows, reaching 9.5 billion US dollars, mainly from the US and Europe. Merrill Lynch analysts said that their view of the Chinese market has changed greatly. The most surprising things are the strong technological breakthroughs and cost advantages shown by China in the field of AI and the resilience and preparations shown by China in the face of external pressure, which are regaining the confidence of global investors in China's long - term growth. Zhongtai Securities said that the stock market has achieved a net inflow of 2.26 trillion yuan in 2025. In 2026, insurance, wealth management, and pensions will form three major incremental funds. The incremental funds of institutions in the stock market in 2026 will reach 3.1 trillion yuan, and the scale of public - offering fixed - income + products will at least double on the basis of this year. More and more international funds are starting to focus on the AI track outside the US. The Chinese technology sector, with its significant valuation advantages, complete industrial ecosystem, and irreplaceable large - scale manufacturing capabilities, is gradually becoming a new battlefield for global funds to layout AI. [2] 后市展望 - On Monday, the major indices of the two markets fluctuated and closed with mixed results, and the commercial space sector continued to strengthen. Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the Chinese stock market cycle is shifting from 'expectation - driven' to 'profit - driven'. In this stage, profit realization and mild valuation expansion will be the core drivers of returns. The report points out that Chinese corporate profits may increase by 14% next year and 12% in 2027, and the valuation expansion may be around 10%. As of December 19, the total scale of all - market listed ETFs reached 5.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.09 trillion yuan or 56% compared with the beginning of the year, becoming an important channel to attract residents' wealth. Global funds are re - increasing their investment in the Chinese stock market. AI strength, valuation attractiveness, and resilience have become the consensus logic, and foreign capital is shifting from passive inflows to expecting the return of active funds. The Chinese technology sector, with its significant valuation advantages, complete industrial ecosystem, and irreplaceable large - scale manufacturing capabilities, is gradually becoming a new battlefield for global funds to layout AI. Morgan Chase believes that in 2026, the risk of a significant rise in the Chinese stock market is much higher than that of a significant decline. The bank is optimistic about multiple positive factors in the Chinese market, including the acceleration of AI applications, anti - involution, and the re - allocation of domestic liquidity from deposits to the stock market. The person in charge of Google's AI infrastructure said in the general meeting that the company must double its AI computing power every six months and achieve an additional 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 to 5 years to meet the continuously rising AI service demand. The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will accelerate the flow of global funds to the Chinese capital market. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and bought 40 billion US dollars of short - term bonds per month, and the Fed's balance sheet has restarted expansion. Some institutions have started the spring market in advance. With strong policy support, the commercial space sector continues to strengthen. On Monday, the four major stock index futures had a small adjustment, mainly related to the repair of technical indices. The US dollars hoarded overseas by Chinese export enterprises are accelerating the settlement of foreign exchange. After the New Year's Day, they are expected to flow from corporate accounts to resident accounts quickly, and resident accounts are expected to flow to the stock market quickly. The abundant capital in the stock market will push the stock index to a new level. Choose the opportunity to establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - type indices as the main targets. [3] Trading Strategy - Stock index futures directional trading: The US dollars hoarded overseas by Chinese export enterprises are accelerating the settlement of foreign exchange. After the New Year's Day, they are expected to flow from corporate accounts to resident accounts quickly, and resident accounts are expected to flow to the stock market quickly. The abundant capital in the stock market will push the stock index to a new level. Choose the opportunity to establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - type indices as the main targets. [3] - Stock index option trading: Around the New Year's Day, all kinds of funds are expected to enter the market quickly. Choose the opportunity to open call options on the CSI 1000 index. [3]
格林期货早盘提示：股指-20251230
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-12-30 01:13