原油：短期震荡，空单持有

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for crude oil is volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions [1] 2. Core View - The report provides an analysis of crude oil futures prices, various regional crude oil arbitrage opportunities, and key market news, indicating that the short - term crude oil market is volatile [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Crude Oil Futures Price - SC2602 crude oil futures closed up 1.30 yuan/barrel, a 0.30% increase, at 436.90 yuan/barrel [1] 3.2 Crude Oil Arbitrage - Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage: Among different crude oil varieties, Napo vs Mars has a significant arbitrage opportunity of 5.22 (Dec - 25), while most other pairs have negative or near - balance arbitrage windows [2] - Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage: Urals vs Bonny Light has an arbitrage window of 23.68 (Dec - 25), showing a relatively large difference [3] - North - Western Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage: Saharan Blend vs Forties has a stable arbitrage space of 1.63 (Dec - 25), while some other varieties have weak or negative arbitrage opportunities [5] - Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage: All the listed crude oil varieties against Urals have deeply closed arbitrage windows, with large value differences and cost factors playing important roles [5] - Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage: All the listed crude oil varieties against ESPO have closed arbitrage windows, with price differences and high costs as main factors, and Eagle Ford has the relatively smallest loss [6] 3.3 Key Market News - President Trump said he heard that Iran was trying to rebuild its military power [6] - As of the week ending December 19, the total US natural gas inventory was 341.3 billion cubic feet, a decrease of 16.6 billion cubic feet from the previous week, 12.9 billion cubic feet less than the same period last year (a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%), and 2.4 billion cubic feet lower than the 5 - year average (a decrease of 0.7%) [7] - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium plans to suspend receiving crude oil on Monday evening [8] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) postponed the release of the weekly petroleum status report for the week ending December 19 [8] - Kazakhstan's oil production in December so far has dropped 6% from the November average to 1.93 million barrels per day [8] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [9]