国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20251230

Report Overview - Date: December 30, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Views - Nickel: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [2][4] - Stainless Steel: The fundamentals constrain its elasticity, but attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: The long - short game intensifies, and attention should be paid to the replenishment demand after the callback [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the production reduction situation of upstream factories [2][12] - Polysilicon: It shows range - bound oscillations with amplified fluctuations [2][13] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: Various data such as closing prices, trading volumes, and price differences of nickel and stainless - steel futures and related products are presented. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 125,710, down 1,040 from the previous day [4] - Macro and Industry News: Includes events like the Indonesian forestry working group taking over a nickel mine due to violations, China suspending non - official subsidies for Russian copper and nickel imports, and Indonesia implementing sanctions on mining companies [4][5][6] - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: Data on contract closing prices, trading volumes, open interest, and basis of lithium carbonate futures are provided. For example, the closing price of the 2601 contract is 117,980, down 9,820 from the previous day [9] - Macro and Industry News: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, Longpan Technology's subsidiary will conduct production - line maintenance, and the demand for new - energy lithium batteries in early 2026 is expected to decline [10][11] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: Data on futures prices, trading volumes, open interest, basis, and spot prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are presented. For example, the Si2605 closing price of industrial silicon is 8,715, down 165 from the previous day [13] - Macro and Industry News: An Indian photovoltaic company plans to invest $30 million to acquire shares of a polysilicon manufacturer and sign a long - term procurement agreement [13] - Trend Intensity: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]