LLDPE：上游库存转移，基差持稳

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upstream inventory of LLDPE has been transferred, and the basis has remained stable. Although the futures price has rebounded, the downstream factories are not actively purchasing, and the supply - demand pressure caused by high - capacity and weakening demand needs to be concerned in the medium term [1][2] 3. Summary of Relevant Contents by Directory Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of L2605 was 6453, with a daily decline of 0.19%. The trading volume was 543216, and the open interest decreased by 17464. The 05 - contract basis was - 153, compared with - 165 the previous day, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 32, compared with - 31 the previous day [1] - Spot Price Data: The spot price in North China was 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in East China it was 6350 yuan/ton, up from 6300 yuan/ton the previous day; in South China it was 6370 yuan/ton, up from 6350 yuan/ton the previous day [1] Spot News - The futures opened higher and fluctuated. The previous rebound provided opportunities for agents and arbitrageurs to build positions. Inventory has been transferred to the middle - stream, and the destocking of warehouse receipts has stopped. At the end of the month, petrochemical companies mostly stopped sales for settlement. Traders' inventories are acceptable, and most of them raised prices with the market. However, downstream factories are not actively purchasing, and transactions are mainly through negotiation. The offers from the Middle East and the United States have declined, and the domestic - foreign price difference has been slightly repaired. Shipments from the Middle East and the United States, which were previously delayed, are arriving at ports recently, and more arrivals are expected in Q1 2026 [1] Market Condition Analysis - The price of crude oil, the raw material, has rebounded, while the monomer segment has been weakly stable. The profit margins of PE's ethylene and ethane processes have been compressed. The PE futures price has rebounded from a low level, with most transactions concentrated in the middle - stream, and downstream has not chased the price to replenish stocks. The near - end downstream agricultural film industry has weakened, while the packaging film industry has maintained rigid demand. After the recent price decline, the willingness of the middle and downstream to hold goods has weakened. Upstream companies have offered price discounts to sell goods at the end of the year, and factory inventories have slightly decreased, with a weak basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up. The current maintenance plan in December is neutral, with some FD production switching and capacity reduction in Inner Mongolia. In the medium term, attention should still be paid to the supply - demand pressure caused by high existing capacity and weakening demand [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0 [3]