国新国证期货早报-20251230

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text. 2. Core View of the Report - On December 29, 2025, A - share major indices showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a nine - day consecutive gain. Different futures varieties had diverse market trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, international market conditions, and seasonal factors [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 29, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04% to close at 3965.28, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.49% to 13537.10, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.66% to 3222.61. The trading volume of the two markets was 2139.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4639.37, a decrease of 17.87 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - On December 29, the weighted coke index was in a correction phase, closing at 1674.6, a decrease of 21.6. The weighted coking coal index was weak, closing at 1080.3 yuan, a decrease of 11.6. Coke has had 3 rounds of price cuts with further cuts expected. Domestic coking coal supply is at a seasonal low, while Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port has high - level customs clearance and accumulating inventory. As of October, China's imported coking coal in 2025 reached 98.869 million tons, a 4.8% year - on - year decrease, and the export of coke was 6.2189 million tons, a 14.05% year - on - year decrease [2][3][4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the adjustment of US sugar on Friday and the reduction of spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fell on Monday. Indonesia aims to increase its sugar production to 3 million tons in 2026 [4] Rubber - Due to short - term large gains and holiday effects, Shanghai rubber adjusted and closed slightly lower on Monday. The inventory increase in Qingdao affected its night - session performance. In November 2025, EU passenger car sales increased by 2.1%. As of December 28, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 524,800 tons, a 1.87% increase [4][5] Palm Oil - On December 29, palm oil rebounded and then fell back. The P2605 contract closed with a negative line. As of December 26, the national key - area commercial inventory of palm oil was 734,100 tons, a 4.87% week - on - week increase and a 38.93% year - on - year increase [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower on December 29. US soybean export sales increased, but the high - yield pressure of South American soybeans restricted the rebound. Domestically, the M2605 contract closed at 2774 yuan/ton on December 29, a 0.57% decrease. Although there are concerns about import supply, the current supply - demand of soybean meal remains loose [5] Live Pigs - On December 29, the LH2603 contract closed at 11,715 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase. The supply pressure has been alleviated in the short term, and demand is good, but the medium - to - long - term supply pressure still exists [5] Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2602 contract opened high, reached a new high, and then fell. The inventory showed an obvious accumulation trend. The morning rise was due to factors such as the record - high of London copper, while the afternoon decline was due to profit - taking and the weakening of the non - ferrous sector [5] Iron Ore - On December 29, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose 2.58%, closing at 796.5 yuan. The global shipment and arrival volume decreased, the port inventory increased, and the terminal demand was low in the off - season. However, the iron - water output increased slightly, and the short - term price was in a volatile trend [6] Asphalt - On December 29, the Asphalt 2602 contract rose 0.23%, closing at 3008 yuan. The capacity utilization rate increased, the inventory accumulated, and the short - term price was in a volatile trend [6] Logs - The Log 2603 contract opened at 778, with a daily reduction of 5 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and future price trends depend on factors such as the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6] Cotton - The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 14,445 yuan/ton on the night of December 29. Cotton - spinning enterprises replenished inventory as needed, and the inventory increased by 232 lots compared with the previous trading day. The futures prices of cotton and cotton yarn rose from December 22 - 26, and relevant government policies were issued to guide industrial transfer [6] Steel - On December 29, the rb2605 contract closed at 3130 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3287 yuan/ton. The profitability of steel mills increased slightly, and the iron - water output stabilized. The cost still supports the steel price, but the demand is weak. The short - term steel price is expected to be strong, while the medium - term price may fluctuate within a range [6] Alumina - On December 29, the ao2605 contract closed at 2751 yuan/ton. The supply of alumina is in an over - supply situation with increasing inventory, and the demand is weak. The spot price is on a downward trend [6] Shanghai Aluminum - On December 29, the al2602 contract closed at 22,570 yuan/ton. Positive macro - policies support the long - term demand for aluminum, but the current demand is restricted by high prices and environmental protection. The short - term price will be in a volatile trend [7]