国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251230

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron Ore: Prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][4]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Supported by macro factors but constrained by the industry, prices will maintain range - bound oscillations [2][6]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese: Affected by market information, prices will experience wide - range fluctuations [2][10]. - Coke: With the start of the fourth round of price cuts, prices will fluctuate repeatedly [2][15]. - Coking Coal: Affected by year - end production cuts, prices will fluctuate repeatedly [2][15]. - Log: Prices will fluctuate at low levels [2][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The previous day's closing price was 796.5 yuan/ton, up 13.5 yuan/ton with a 1.72% increase. The previous day's position was 629,681 lots, an increase of 48,950 lots. Imported and domestic ore prices all rose slightly, while most spreads decreased [4]. - Macro and Industry News: From January to November, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.1% year - on - year, with different performance among different types of enterprises [4]. - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a bearish trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: The previous day's closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 were 3,130 yuan/ton and 3,287 yuan/ton respectively. There were changes in trading volume, position, and spreads [6]. - Macro and Industry News: There were changes in steel production, inventory, and demand in mid - December. Also, the government implemented export license management for some steel products, and there were changes in steel imports [6][8]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [9]. Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese - Fundamental Data: There were changes in futures closing prices, trading volumes, and various spreads [10]. - Macro and Industry News: There were price adjustments for silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silico - manganese, and changes in the operating rate and production of silicon ferrosilicon enterprises in Gansu [10][11]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: The previous day's closing prices of JM2605 and J2605 decreased. There were changes in trading volume, position, and spreads [15]. - Macro and Industry News: There were changes in metallurgical coal indexes, and coal mines in Fuyuan, Yunnan stopped production, which may affect regional supply [15]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [18]. Log - Fundamental Data: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log contracts, as well as changes in spot prices [20]. - Macro and Industry News: The 12 - month LPR remained unchanged in December [22]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [22].