国泰君安期货所长早读-20251230

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Japan's central bank's December meeting minutes suggest more interest rate hikes, with economists expecting another hike in about six months and most seeing the end - rate of this hiking cycle at 1.25% [7][8]. - Platinum and palladium prices retreated yesterday, with high - level volatility intensifying. Short - term attention should be paid to the spread between domestic and foreign markets and holiday liquidity tightening, and investors are advised to control positions and set strict stop - loss [9][10]. - For lithium carbonate, there is a game between weak off - season demand and strong expectations, and the lithium price will fluctuate widely in the short term. The key is to focus on the downstream spot purchasing after the price correction [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pre - market Highlights from the Director - Japan's Central Bank Policy: The December policy meeting minutes of the Bank of Japan show that many members believe the country's real interest rates are still extremely low, hinting at continued future rate hikes. The benchmark interest rate was raised to 0.75%, a 30 - year high. Economists expect another hike in about six months, with most seeing 1.25% as the end - rate of this cycle [7][8]. - Platinum and Palladium: Prices retreated yesterday. The core drivers are the capital movements in European and American markets and risk - aversion operations before the New Year's Day holiday in the domestic market. There are structural contradictions in the spot market, but they are not tightening marginally. ETF inflows are stable. Short - term attention should be paid to the spread between domestic and foreign markets and holiday liquidity tightening [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: There is a game between weak off - season demand and strong expectations. The price fluctuated widely in the short term. The market is affected by news, such as the expected weakening of lithium - battery demand in early 2026 and the substitution of sodium - batteries. The industry is in a destocking state, but the pace has slowed. The market's overall expectation for next year is still positive [11]. Commodity Research Morning Report Precious Metals - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining. The prices of Shanghai gold futures and Comex gold futures decreased, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes [16]. - Silver: It is in a high - level adjustment. Shanghai silver futures and Comex silver futures prices declined, and trading volumes and positions also changed [16]. Base Metals - Copper: Capital liquidation led to a price correction. The prices of Shanghai copper and LME copper showed different trends, and production and import data also changed [23][25]. - Zinc: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The prices of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc changed, and inventory and other data also showed corresponding fluctuations [26]. - Lead: The decrease in LME inventory limits the price decline. The prices of Shanghai lead and LME lead changed, and inventory data also changed [29]. - Tin: Supply is disrupted again. The prices of Shanghai tin and LME tin decreased, and inventory and other data also changed [32]. - Aluminum: It follows the trend of copper. The prices of Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum changed, and inventory and other data also showed fluctuations [36]. - Platinum: Capital outflows led to a retreat. The prices of platinum futures and spot platinum decreased, and trading volumes and positions also changed [39]. - Palladium: It followed platinum's decline. The prices of palladium futures and spot palladium decreased, and trading volumes and positions also changed [39]. - Nickel: There is a game between capital and industrial forces. The price of Shanghai nickel changed, and there are some impacts on the industry from policies in Indonesia [43]. - Stainless Steel: The fundamentals restrict its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesia's policy risks. The price of stainless - steel futures changed, and there are impacts on the industry from policies in Indonesia [43]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: The game between bulls and bears intensifies. Attention should be paid to the restocking demand after the price correction. The prices of lithium - carbonate futures and spot lithium carbonate changed, and there are impacts from news and market expectations [48][50]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is in a range - bound oscillation with fluctuations increasing. Polysilicon is also in a range - bound oscillation. The prices of their futures and spot products changed, and inventory and other data also showed corresponding fluctuations [51]. - Iron Ore: It is fluctuating at a high level. The price of iron - ore futures increased, and spot prices and spreads also changed [54]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The macro - environment provides support while the industry exerts pressure, and steel prices remain range - bound. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures increased, and spot prices and spreads also changed [56]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Market information causes wide - range oscillations. The prices of their futures and spot products changed, and spreads also changed [60]. - Coke and Coking Coal: A fourth round of price cuts for coke has started, and there are end - of - year production - reduction disturbances for coking coal. The prices of their futures and spot products changed, and spreads also changed [65]. - Log: It is oscillating at a low level [69]. - Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG: Para - xylene and PTA are in a high - level oscillation. MEG has limited upside space and still faces pressure in the medium term. Their prices and spreads changed, and there are impacts from production and demand [71][75][76][77]. - Rubber: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The price of rubber futures decreased, and inventory and other data also changed [78][79]. - Synthetic Rubber: It follows the decline of the commodity index. The price of synthetic - rubber futures decreased, and there are impacts from inventory and market trends [82][84]. - LLDPE: Upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis remains stable. The price of LLDPE futures decreased, and there are impacts from production, demand, and inventory [85][86]. - PP: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market stabilizes and oscillates. The price of PP futures decreased, and there are impacts from production, demand, and cost [88][89]. - Caustic Soda: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The price of caustic - soda futures and spot prices changed, and there are impacts from production, demand, and inventory [91][93]. - Pulp: It is oscillating weakly. The price of pulp futures decreased, and inventory and other data also changed [99]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The price of glass futures increased, and spot prices and spreads also changed [104]. - Methanol: It oscillates with support. The price of methanol futures remained stable, and there are impacts from inventory and cost [107][109]. - Urea: It oscillates in the short term. The price of urea futures remained stable, and there are impacts from production, demand, and inventory [111][114]. - Styrene: It oscillates in the short term. The price of styrene futures decreased, and there are impacts from production, demand, and cost [115][116]. - Soda Ash: The spot market changes little. The price of soda - ash futures decreased, and spot prices remained stable [119]. - LPG: The short - term supply is tight. Attention should be paid to the realization of the downward driving force. The prices of LPG and propylene futures changed, and there are impacts from production and demand [121][122]. - Propylene: The spot supply - demand tightens, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound. The price of propylene futures changed, and there are impacts from production and demand [122]. - PVC: It oscillates weakly. The price of PVC futures and spot prices changed, and there are impacts from production, demand, and inventory [130]. - Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Fuel oil's night - session volatility increases, and it may remain strong in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil oscillates strongly, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. Their prices and spreads changed [134]. - Container Freight Index (European Line): Attention should be paid to the cabin - opening guidance. The price of the container - freight - index futures increased, and there are impacts from shipping capacity and geopolitical factors [136][146][147]. - Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip: They are oscillating at a high level. The prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures decreased, and spot prices also changed [151]. - Offset Printing Paper: It is advisable to watch. The price of offset - printing - paper futures increased, and spot prices remained stable [154]. - Pure Benzene: It oscillates mainly in the short term. The price of pure - benzene futures decreased, and spot prices and inventory changed [159][160]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: Palm oil rebounds in the short - term rhythm but with limited height. Soybean oil has little driving force from the US soybeans, and it is advisable to operate within a range. Their prices and spreads changed [163]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean: Overnight US soybeans closed lower, and Dalian soybean meal may follow the adjustment. Soybean oscillates. The prices of soybean - meal and soybean futures changed, and there are impacts from production and demand [168][169][170][171]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The price of corn futures changed, and spot prices and spreads also changed [172][173][174]. - Sugar: It is in a range - bound arrangement. The price of sugar futures decreased, and there are impacts from production and demand at home and abroad [176][177][178]. - Cotton: The area expectation is undetermined, and the futures price is correcting. The price of cotton futures decreased, and there are impacts from the domestic and international cotton markets [181][183][184][185]. - Egg: It oscillates in the short term. The price of egg futures decreased, and spot prices and spreads also changed [187]. - Live Pig: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and it is strong in the short term. The price of live - pig futures increased, and spot prices and spreads also changed [190][191]. - Peanut: Attention should be paid to the purchases by oil mills. The price of peanut futures changed, and spot prices and spreads also changed [196].