格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20251230

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The short - term volatility of precious metals has intensified, and investors are advised to adjust positions and control risks [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - COMEX gold futures fell 4.45% to $4350.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 7.2% to $71.64 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed down 4% at 975.8 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver closed down 8.74% at 17,237 yuan per kilogram [1] 3.2 Important News - As of December 29, the持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.86 tons to 1071.99 tons, while the持仓 of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 84.6 tons to 16305.96 tons [1] - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 16.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 83.9%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 47.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 6.9% [1] - Trump confirmed that the US military attacked a large - scale facility in the Venezuelan operation. He also stated that if Iran continues to develop ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons, he supports strikes against Iran [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January next year remains within 20%. CME Group announced a significant margin adjustment on December 26, raising the performance margins of gold, silver, lithium and other metal futures after the close on December 29, which triggered long - position profit - taking. On December 29, the US dollar index fell slightly by 0.04% to 98.00, and both COMEX gold and silver declined significantly with silver fluctuating violently throughout the day [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Due to the intensified short - term volatility of precious metals, investors should adjust positions and control risks [1]