公募REITs2026年投资展望：攻守之道与价值掘金

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Viewpoints - China's public REITs have shifted from pilot projects to normal development, with a steady expansion in issuance scale and continuous enrichment of asset types in recent years. In 2025, the issuance scale declined slightly, but new "first - order" projects broadened the REITs asset landscape [13]. - Since 2021, the subscription multiples of China's public REITs have shown significant fluctuations, driven by product scarcity, market sentiment, and expected returns of asset types. The secondary - market performance of REITs is between the CSI 300 and the CSI Aggregate Bond Index, with low correlation to other assets, suitable for balancing portfolio volatility [19][27]. - The holders of the current public REITs' floating shares are highly concentrated, dominated by institutional investors. Brokerage proprietary trading is the main force, followed by insurance funds and industrial capital. Different types of REITs show significant sectoral differentiation in their holder structures [2][28]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Review: From Valuation Fluctuation to Value Return Market Characteristics and Driving Factors - The issuance scale of public REITs in 2025 decreased compared to the previous high, but new asset types emerged. The subscription multiples fluctuated significantly from 2021 - 2025, and the secondary - market performance of REITs can be divided into six stages, with different reasons for each stage's performance [13][19][21]. - As of December 19, 2025, the CSI REITs Total Return Index had a year - to - date increase of +3.2%, significantly underperforming the CSI 300 and the CSI Convertible Bond Index, only better than the CSI Aggregate Bond Index. The main reasons include the shift of funds, the narrowing of the primary - secondary market spread, and the weak fundamentals of underlying assets [22]. Institutional Allocation Preference Differences - Brokerage proprietary trading, insurance funds, and industrial capital are the main holders of public REITs' floating shares, accounting for over 84%. Brokerage proprietary trading prefers assets with high liquidity and valuation elasticity, while insurance funds focus on assets with stable long - term cash flows. Individual and mutual fund investors' participation is limited [2][28][30]. - The number of REITs products allocated by public fund FOFs has been increasing, but the growth rate has slowed down. From the first to the third quarter of 2025, the allocation strategy of FOFs changed from diversified layout to concentrated addition of high - attention products [31][36]. Fundamental Analysis: Differentiated Performance of Asset Types - Industrial Parks: In 2025, the rental rate and rent level of industrial park REITs showed the characteristics of "intensified differentiation and supply - demand game". High - quality science and technology parks and core - location assets showed resilience, while some traditional industrial parks faced pressure [42]. - Warehousing and Logistics: In 2025, the operating income of warehousing and logistics REITs mostly showed a fluctuating downward trend. The rental rate was differentiated, with core assets showing strong anti - risk ability, and the rent level generally declined [46]. - Consumption: In 2025, consumption REITs showed significant differentiation. The rental rate remained stable at a high level, while the rent level was differentiated. Core - area and high - quality - operation commercial assets had strong anti - risk ability [51]. - Affordable Housing: The affordable housing REIT market showed strong operational resilience, with most REITs maintaining a high rental rate and stable rent level, indicating strong anti - risk ability of the housing sector [54]. - Transportation: The core driving logic of the transportation sector is the recovery of travel demand and the improvement of asset operation efficiency. The traffic volume and toll revenue showed significant differentiation among different REITs [57]. - Ecological and Environmental Protection: The two listed ecological and environmental protection REITs showed good performance in the third quarter of 2025, with an increase in waste treatment volume and sewage treatment volume [61]. - Energy: In 2025, except for Huaxia TBEA New Energy REIT, the revenue of other energy REITs declined significantly. The photovoltaic field performed well, while the wind power field was generally sluggish [63]. - Municipal Utilities: The heating area and charging area of Guotai Haitong Jinan Energy Heating REIT remained basically stable in 2025, but the heat - stop rate and charging rate decreased significantly in the third quarter [67]. - Water Conservancy: The operating income of YinHua Shaoxing Raw Water Water Conservancy REIT increased significantly in the third quarter of 2025, mainly due to the increase in the supply of raw water [69]. - New Infrastructure: The two new infrastructure REITs disclosed their operating income for the first time in the third quarter of 2025, and their trusteeship service fee collection rates were 100%, laying a good foundation for subsequent operations [71]. Investment Recommendations: Structural Opportunities under Policy Dividends and Asset Differentiation Primary Market: Select Projects in a Differentiated Market - Since this year, the enthusiasm for new REIT subscriptions has declined, and some REITs have broken their issue prices after listing. The return on new subscriptions has decreased due to the weak secondary - market performance and the narrowing of the primary - secondary market spread. Different asset types have shown differentiated performance, and it is recommended to focus on high - quality projects and be cautious about long - term strategic allocations [3][75]. Secondary Market: A Dumbbell Strategy for Offense and Defense - In asset allocation, public REITs can meet the investment needs of "idle funds + long - term holding". Appropriate allocation of REITs in the investment portfolio can improve the Sharpe ratio, but the allocation ratio should be moderate [77][78]. - In the future, there will be short - term local unlocking disturbances, with a peak in the first half of 2026. It is recommended to follow the "policy dividend + high - quality assets" principle, adopt a dumbbell strategy. On one hand, explore the stable dividend value of affordable housing and municipal environmental protection assets; on the other hand, lay out new infrastructure sectors such as data centers and clean energy. Also, seize the incremental opportunities brought by expansion [3][82].