2025年12月30日：期货市场交易指引-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1] - Black building materials: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend [1] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper suggests holding long positions cautiously and holding a light position during holidays; aluminum advises more observation; nickel suggests observation or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to move in a range [1] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; polyolefins are expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend [1] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend; apples and jujubes are expected to move sideways [1] - Agriculture and animal husbandry: Live pigs suggest a short - selling strategy on rallies for near - term contracts and a cautious bullish view for far - term contracts; eggs suggest that breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies for the 02 contract; corn suggests caution on chasing highs in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; soybean meal suggests a bullish view on dips for near - term 03 contracts and a bearish view for far - term 05 contracts; oils suggest gradually closing long positions and caution on chasing highs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the influencing factors of each product, including policy changes, production and inventory levels, and market sentiment, and gives corresponding trading strategies [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Index futures: They are expected to move sideways in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term. The Chinese government's fiscal policy is positive, but industrial profit decline and market rotation may cause short - term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to trading volume changes [5] - Treasury bonds: They are expected to move sideways. The previous driving factors of the market are fading, and there is a lack of significant positive factors to drive a new trend. Attention should be paid to the strength changes between assets [5] Black building materials - Coking coal: It is expected to move sideways. The market is in a game between strong negative factors (high inventory of imported Mongolian coal, weak demand) and weak positive factors (domestic coal mine production cuts, cost support). Short - term trading is recommended [7] - Rebar: It is expected to move sideways. Futures prices are in a narrow range. The valuation is neutral, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. Range trading is recommended [7] - Glass: It is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is expected to decrease due to production line closures, and there is short - term speculation opportunity around the New Year's Day. However, in the long term, the supply - demand situation is not conducive to a continuous price increase [9] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: It has reached a new high. It is expected to be high - level sideways before the New Year's Day holiday. It is bullish in the long term but there is a risk of short - term correction. Cautious long - holding and light - position holiday - holding are recommended [10] - Aluminum: It is in a rebound. The fundamentals are still weak, and it is expected to be high - level sideways. More observation is recommended [12] - Nickel: It is expected to move sideways. It is expected to be in a surplus situation in the long term. Observation or shorting on rallies is recommended [14] - Tin: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to overseas supply disturbances and downstream demand recovery [14] - Silver: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. The price center is moving up. Holding long positions is recommended, and caution is needed for new positions [16] - Gold: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. The price center is moving up. Range trading is recommended, and caution is needed for chasing highs [16] - Lithium carbonate: It is expected to move in a range. Supply and demand are in a state of balance. Attention should be paid to the impact of Yichun's mining permit issues on supply [17] Energy and chemicals - PVC: It is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is supported by low valuation and potential policy and cost factors [17] - Caustic soda: It is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend. The fundamentals are weak, and short - term observation is recommended [19] - Styrene: It is expected to move sideways. The short - term is in a range - bound state, and the medium - to long - term depends on the improvement of cost and supply - demand patterns [19] - Rubber: It is expected to move sideways. The raw material price increase is limited, and the inventory is accumulating. There is a risk of price correction [21] - Urea: It is expected to move sideways. Supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price is in a wide - range fluctuation [22] - Methanol: It is expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is increasing, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [24] - Polyolefins: They are expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the upward pressure is large [25] - Soda ash: Temporary observation is recommended. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space of the price is limited [26] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: They are expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend. Global cotton production and consumption are adjusted, and the price is supported by stable consumption and policy expectations [28] - Apples: They are expected to move sideways. The market price of late - harvested Fuji apples in storage is stable, and the trading of farmers' goods is still in a stalemate [28] - Jujubes: They are expected to move sideways. The acquisition of gray jujubes in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the remaining supply is limited [28] Agriculture and animal husbandry - Live pigs: The near - term contracts are expected to be bearish on rallies, and the far - term contracts are cautiously bullish. The supply is increasing in the short term, and the price rebound is limited. In the long term, the price depends on the degree of production capacity reduction [30] - Eggs: The 02 contract is suitable for breeding enterprises to hedge on rallies. The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the medium - to long - term supply pressure still exists [34] - Corn: It is expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. The short - term price increase is limited, and the long - term demand is gradually recovering, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [36] - Soybean meal: It is expected to move sideways. The near - term 03 contract is bullish on dips, and the far - term 05 contract is bearish [36] - Oils: The short - term rebound is limited, and caution is needed for chasing highs. The long - term trend depends on factors such as palm oil production reduction, biodiesel policies, and soybean supply [44]