能源化策略日报：乌克兰停?协议短期难以达成，化?供需偏弱?预期较好，期价延续震荡-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The chemical industry is in an overall oscillatory pattern. Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the situation in Venezuela continue to disturb the crude oil market. Although China's crude oil imports are at a record high and there are expectations of improved demand, the supply - surplus pattern in the crude oil market still exerts downward pressure. Most chemical products are in a state of oscillation due to factors like high inventory of liquid chemicals and the weak - reality and strong - expectation situation in some regions [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - The chemical industry as a whole is oscillating. The inventory of most liquid chemicals increased on Monday, especially pure benzene. The 05 main contract is far from the delivery time, and the weak spot supply - demand situation has limited immediate negative impact on the futures price. High crude oil imports in China and good refined oil profits may lead to high refinery operation before and after the Spring Festival, which is a concern for the chemical industry [2]. 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - Viewpoint: Geopolitical factors in Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela continue to disturb, and oil prices continue to oscillate. - Main Logic: The postponed EIA data shows inventory accumulation in US crude oil and refined products. Although the global crude oil inventory pressure has weakened in the past two weeks, the subsequent inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. Geopolitical factors are the core of supply expectations, but there is a lack of marginal drivers for both long and short positions. - Outlook: There is still significant downward pressure in the next quarter under the supply - surplus situation, but short - term geopolitical disturbances make the decline unsmooth, so it is regarded as oscillatory [6]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - Viewpoint: Asphalt futures prices rise following crude oil. - Main Logic: OPEC + increased production in December, and the expectation of raw material supply interruption drives the rise. However, the supply - demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and the high - valuation is being adjusted. - Outlook: The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated [8]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices decline following crude oil. - Main Logic: Although there are expectations of heavy - oil shortage, the demand outlook is suppressed by high - floating storage in the Asia - Pacific and the substitution of fuel - oil power generation by other energy sources. In addition, the refinery processing demand is weak in the off - season. - Outlook: Supply - demand is weak [8]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: Low - sulfur fuel oil oscillates weakly. - Main Logic: It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It has a supply - increase and demand - decline trend, but the current valuation is low and it follows the movement of crude oil. - Outlook: It follows the fluctuation of crude oil [10]. 3.2.5 PX - Viewpoint: The monthly spread weakens ahead of the price, and the short - term price adjusts downward. - Main Logic: International oil prices are consolidating, and some long - position funds take profits before the holiday. There are also expectations of increased supply due to the expansion of PX production benefits. - Outlook: The short - term price is expected to adjust downward. Pay attention to the support around 7000 - 7100 [11]. 3.2.6 PTA - Viewpoint: It follows the cost to adjust downward in the short term. - Main Logic: The upstream PX adjusts downward, and although the supply - demand pattern changes little, the supply pressure will gradually return with the restart of some devices. - Outlook: The price follows the cost to adjust and oscillate, and the processing fee runs within a range [11]. 3.2.7 Pure Benzene - Viewpoint: The weak reality still suppresses, and the market oscillates. - Main Logic: The spot price is slightly supported by downstream export orders and high overseas prices, but the high inventory and weak demand limit the price increase. The far - month contract has the expectation of supply - demand improvement. - Outlook: The inventory - accumulation pressure is being realized, and the trading is mainly based on reality [14]. 3.2.8 Styrene - Viewpoint: Short - term sentiment dominates the market, and attention is paid to the sustainability of export transactions. - Main Logic: The cost support is weak, but there are positive factors such as export expectations and the impact of device maintenance. However, there is a possibility of negative feedback from downstream devices. - Outlook: It is about to turn to inventory accumulation, and the export transactions stimulate the rebound periodically [16]. 3.2.9 Ethylene Glycol - Viewpoint: The reduction in polyester production is gradually realized, and the driving force is general. - Main Logic: The price is in a narrow - range consolidation, with continuous inventory accumulation and slow reduction in domestic supply. Overseas imports are expected to decrease in February, and domestic supply will be alleviated in March. - Outlook: The short - term price is in a range, and the long - term inventory - accumulation pressure limits the rebound height [18]. 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - Viewpoint: The adjustment range is limited, and the processing fee stops falling in the short term. - Main Logic: The upstream cost adjusts downward, but the adjustment range of short - fiber is limited. Due to the off - season, the sales are average. - Outlook: The price follows the upstream to adjust, and the processing fee stops falling in the short term [20]. 3.2.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - Viewpoint: It follows the upstream cost to adjust downward. - Main Logic: The upstream raw material futures decline, and the price of bottle chips follows. The trading atmosphere is weak, and the fundamentals are slightly weak. - Outlook: The absolute value follows the raw material, and the processing fee is under some pressure [21]. 3.2.12 Methanol - Viewpoint: The weak reality in coastal areas contrasts with the strong expectation, and inland areas offer discounts before the festival. Methanol is generally regarded as oscillatory. - Main Logic: There is a significant difference between coastal and inland areas. Inland prices decline due to pre - holiday sales pressure, while coastal areas have the expectation of reduced imports. - Outlook: The trading logic in coastal areas dominates in the short term, and it is regarded as oscillatory [23]. 3.2.13 Urea - Viewpoint: There is no new positive news, and urea is weakly consolidating. - Main Logic: The daily production is high, and there is no new positive news in demand, especially in exports. The market is in a stalemate. - Outlook: There is supply pressure in the long term and no new positive news in demand. It may decline slightly [24]. 3.2.14 LLDPE - Viewpoint: Both long and short positions are cautious before the festival, and LLDPE is regarded as oscillatory. - Main Logic: The oil price oscillates, and LLDPE's own fundamentals have some support, but the demand is in the off - season. - Outlook: It oscillates in the short term [25]. 3.2.15 PP - Viewpoint: The basis support is limited, and PP is regarded as oscillatory. - Main Logic: PDH profits are under pressure, the oil price oscillates, and the demand is in the off - season with high inventory pressure. - Outlook: It oscillates in the short term [26]. 3.2.16 PL - Viewpoint: Supported by the expectation of PDH maintenance, PL oscillates. - Main Logic: The expectation of PDH maintenance has a boosting effect, but the downstream demand is in the off - season. - Outlook: It oscillates in the short term [27]. 3.2.17 PVC - Viewpoint: The market sentiment weakens, and PVC declines. - Main Logic: Macro - level factors have a certain impact, and although the supply - demand expectation improves, the high - inventory pressure still exists. - Outlook: The market sentiment fades, and PVC may oscillate [28]. 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - Viewpoint: With low valuation and weak expectation, caustic soda is in an oscillatory state. - Main Logic: Macro - level factors affect the market, and the supply - demand is still in a state of oversupply. - Outlook: The market sentiment affects the market, and it may oscillate due to low valuation [30]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spread: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.42 with a change of 0.02, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread being - 66 with a change of - 24 [32]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Different varieties have different basis and warehouse - receipt data, such as asphalt's basis being - 88 with a change of - 13 and a warehouse receipt of 20840 [33]. - Inter - variety Spread: Different varieties have different inter - variety spread values and changes, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA being - 233 with a change of - 21 [35]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report only mentions the names of various varieties for basis and spread monitoring but does not provide specific data and analysis. 3.4 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index of commodities is 2339.89, down 0.59%; the 20 - commodity index is 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial - product index is 2258.87, down 0.70% [279]. - Energy Index: The energy index on December 29, 2025, is 1088.67, with a daily decline of 1.40%, a 5 - day decline of 0.99%, a 1 - month decline of 4.21%, and a year - to - date decline of 11.34% [281].