Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For gold, the price is expected to rise steadily, so it is recommended to go long; for silver, there is short - term upside potential due to strong speculative sentiment, but future volatility will increase, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - For basic metals like copper, it is recommended to wait and see for a buying point; aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short - term; alumina prices will maintain a weak trend [2]. - For industrial silicon, the market is expected to oscillate within a certain range, and it is advisable to wait and see; for lithium carbonate, the short - term has callback pressure and is expected to oscillate at a high level, so it is advisable to wait and see; for polysilicon, it is recommended to wait for the price to回调 to the spot price range and then layout long positions; for tin, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For the black industry, for螺纹 steel, it is advisable to wait and see and try to short the 2605 contract; for iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see; for coking coal, it is advisable to wait and see and try to short the 09 contract [4]. - For agricultural products, for soybean meal, the US soybean market oscillates weakly, and the domestic market is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term; for corn, the futures price is expected to oscillate; for oils and fats, the market is in a stage of oscillation and differentiation; for sugar, it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, it is recommended to buy long at low prices; for eggs, the futures price is expected to oscillate; for live pigs, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [5][6][7]. - For energy and chemicals, for LLDPE, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and advisable to go long on far - month contracts in the long - term; for PVC, it is recommended to do reverse arbitrage; for PTA, it is advisable to maintain a long - term long position for PX and look for opportunities to buy processing fees for PTA; for rubber, it is advisable to hold short positions in the short - term; for glass, it is recommended to do reverse arbitrage; for PP, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and advisable to go long on far - month contracts in the long - term; for MEG, it is recommended to short at high prices; for crude oil, it is recommended to short at high prices; for styrene, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term and advisable to go long on styrene or do pure benzene reverse arbitrage and long on styrene profits in the second quarter; for soda ash, it is recommended to short [8][9][10][11]. Summary by Directory Gold Market - Market Performance: On Monday, precious metal prices rose and then fell sharply, with London gold down more than 4% and London silver down 8.79% [1]. - Fundamentals: Trump pressured the Fed and may sue Powell; he said the Russia - Ukraine conflict negotiation was in the final stage; the Bank of Japan hinted at more interest rate hikes; domestic gold ETFs had a large outflow, and there were changes in inventories of various gold - related products [1]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on gold; wait and see for silver [1]. Basic Metals Copper - Market Performance: The copper price rose sharply and then fell yesterday [2]. - Fundamentals: The sharp adjustment of precious metals led to the adjustment of the metal sector. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and downstream orders stagnated after price increases [2]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for a buying point [2]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.74% compared with the previous trading day [2]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term aluminum price is expected to oscillate [2]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 1.50% compared with the previous trading day [2]. - Fundamentals: Some alumina plants in Henan and Shanxi reduced production due to environmental protection, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategy: The price will maintain a weak trend, and attention should be paid to the progress of mergers and acquisitions and other factors [2]. Industrial Metals Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Monday, the price opened flat, oscillated up in the morning, and fell nearly 3% in the afternoon [3]. - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces increased, social inventory slightly increased, and the production of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased [3]. - Trading Strategy: The market is expected to oscillate within the range of 8400 - 9200, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 118,820 yuan/ton, down 9% [3]. - Fundamentals: The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased, production increased, demand for some materials decreased, and inventory is expected to increase in Q1 [3]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term has callback pressure and is expected to oscillate at a high level, so it is advisable to wait and see [3]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 56500 yuan/ton, down 4.16% [3]. - Fundamentals: Production is expected to decrease, inventory increased slightly, demand for some products decreased, and the annual installed capacity is expected to break through 300GW [3]. - Trading Strategy: Wait for the price to回调 to the spot price range and then layout long positions [3]. Tin - Market Performance: The tin price rose and then fell sharply yesterday [3]. - Fundamentals: The adjustment of precious metals led to the adjustment of the metal sector. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and domestic warehouse receipts decreased [3]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [3]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The rebar main 2605 contract closed at 3135 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The building material inventory decreased, demand was weak year - on - year, supply decreased significantly year - on - year, and the futures discount was large [4]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see and try to short the 2605 contract [4]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The iron ore main 2605 contract closed at 796 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The arrival volume increased, port inventory increased, coke prices were lowered, and the supply and demand were neutral [4]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [4]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The coking coal main 2605 contract closed at 1108.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The molten iron output remained flat, coke prices were lowered, inventory was at a neutral level, and the futures premium was high [4]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see and try to short the 09 contract [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans fell [5]. - Fundamentals: The supply is loose in the near - term and expected to be large in the long - term in South America; the US soybean crushing is strong, and the export progress is slow [5]. - Trading Strategy: The US soybean market oscillates weakly, and the domestic market is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [5]. Corn - Market Performance: The corn futures price increased significantly, and the spot price decreased in Shandong and increased in the Northeast [5]. - Fundamentals: The grain sales progress was slower than last year, farmers were reluctant to sell, downstream inventory increased, and the procurement enthusiasm decreased [5]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate [5]. Oils and Fats - Market Performance: The Malaysian market closed lower yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased seasonally in December, and exports increased [7]. - Trading Strategy: The market is in a stage of oscillation and differentiation [7]. Sugar - Market Performance: The SR05 contract closed at 5263 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [7]. - Fundamentals: The sales progress is slow, and the futures price is expected to follow the fundamental logic after the macro - sentiment cools down [7]. - Trading Strategy: Short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. Cotton - Market Performance: The overnight ICE US cotton futures price rose and then fell [7]. - Fundamentals: The US cotton inspection situation and Japanese clothing import data; the domestic cotton futures price oscillated narrowly [7]. - Trading Strategy: Buy long at low prices [7]. Eggs - Market Performance: The egg futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price partially decreased [7]. - Fundamentals: The laying hen inventory decreased, the elimination enthusiasm decreased, and the demand was supported at low prices [7]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate [7]. Live Pigs - Market Performance: The live pig futures price rebounded, and the spot price continued to rise [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply is still abundant, the demand is expected to increase seasonally, and the supply - demand pressure has eased [7]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly yesterday, and the import window was closed [8]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and the demand in the downstream agricultural film sector decreased [8]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, and go long on far - month contracts in the long - term [8]. PVC - Market Performance: The V05 contract closed at 4776, up 0.3% [9]. - Fundamentals: The price rebounded due to macro - drivers, but the fundamentals did not keep up. The supply and demand were stable, and the inventory was high [9]. - Trading Strategy: Do reverse arbitrage [9]. PTA - Market Performance: The PX CFR China price was 919 dollars/ton, and the PTA East China spot price was 5175 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: The PX supply was high, the PTA short - term supply decreased, and the polyester demand decreased [9]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a long - term long position for PX and look for opportunities to buy processing fees for PTA [9]. Rubber - Market Performance: The RU2605 contract closed at 15665 yuan/ton, down 0.54% [9]. - Fundamentals: The Thai raw material price was stable, the inventory increased, and the market sentiment was wait - and - see [9]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in the short - term [9]. Glass - Market Performance: The FG05 contract closed at 1052, up 0.5% [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased seasonally, and the inventory was high [9]. - Trading Strategy: Do reverse arbitrage [9]. PP - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly yesterday, and the import window was closed [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply increased, the demand decreased, and the export window opened [10]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, and go long on far - month contracts in the long - term [10]. MEG - Market Performance: The East China spot price was 3666 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was - 152 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply was high, the inventory increased, and the polyester demand decreased [10]. - Trading Strategy: Short at high prices [10]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: The oil price opened high and went high yesterday due to geopolitical events [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply was high, the demand was in the off - season, and the inventory was above the five - year average [10]. - Trading Strategy: Short at high prices [10]. Styrene - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly yesterday, and the import window was closed [10]. - Fundamentals: The pure benzene and styrene inventories were at a normal - to - high level, and the demand was in the off - season [10]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate in the short - term, and go long on styrene or do pure benzene reverse arbitrage and long on styrene profits in the second quarter [10]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The SA05 contract closed at 1182, down 0.6% [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply increased due to new device production, the inventory decreased from a high level, and the downstream demand was weak [11]. - Trading Strategy: Short [11].
招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20251230
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2025-12-30 01:56