碳酸锂：多空博弈加剧，关注回调后补库需求

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The game between bulls and bears in the lithium carbonate market has intensified, and attention should be paid to the restocking demand after the price correction [1]. - The demand for new energy lithium batteries in China at the beginning of 2026 is expected to decline significantly compared with the fourth quarter of 2025, and battery manufacturers are expected to cut production and take holidays to cope with the demand fluctuations [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 117,980, down 9,820 from the previous day; the trading volume was 18,938, an increase of 6,166; the open interest was 18,871, a decrease of 3,006. For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 118,820, down 11,700; the trading volume was 688,764, an increase of 260,048; the open interest was 512,345, a decrease of 64,690 [1]. - Basis and Price Spreads: The basis of spot - 2601 was 20, and the basis of spot - 2605 was - 820. The price spread between 2601 and 2605 was - 840, and the price spread between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 3,000 [1]. - Raw Materials and Lithium Salts: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,545, up 55; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 3,400, up 45. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 118,000, up 6,100; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 115,000, up 5,750 [1]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 117,013 yuan/ton, up 5,331 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 118,000 yuan/ton, up 6,100 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 115,000 yuan/ton, up 5,750 yuan/ton [2]. - Longpan Technology's subsidiary will conduct maintenance on some production lines from January 1, 2026, for about one month, with an expected reduction of about 5,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate production, which is not expected to have a significant impact on the company's 2026 operating performance [3]. - The demand for new energy lithium batteries in China at the beginning of 2026 is expected to decline significantly due to factors such as the adjustment of vehicle purchase tax policies, the end - of - year subsidy rush in the commercial vehicle market, and weak overseas and domestic storage demand [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish sentiment [3].