中泰期货晨会纪要-20251230

Core Insights - China is set to become the first economy to pay interest on its central bank digital currency, with the new digital yuan framework starting on January 1, 2026, marking a transition from "digital cash" to "digital deposit currency" [10] - The People's Liberation Army has begun military exercises around Taiwan, indicating heightened geopolitical tensions in the region [10] - The State Council has announced a tariff adjustment plan for 2026, which includes temporary lower import tariffs on 935 items to enhance the synergy between domestic and international markets [10] - The automotive market in China is expected to see complex growth dynamics in 2026, influenced by early government subsidies and seasonal factors [11] - Hong Kong's private residential prices have increased for six consecutive months, suggesting a potential end to the downward trend since 2021 [11] - The global memory industry is expected to experience a prolonged "super cycle" due to strong demand for AI servers and enterprise SSDs, lasting at least until 2027 [11] - TSMC has commenced mass production of its 2nm technology, which is anticipated to be the most advanced semiconductor technology in terms of density and energy efficiency [12] Macroeconomic Insights - The A-share market shows mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.04% while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.49% [14] - Industrial profits for large enterprises have shown a decline in growth rate as of November [14] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of stabilizing industrial growth and addressing "involution" competition [14][15] Commodity Insights - The steel market is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with iron ore prices under pressure due to weak demand from the real estate sector and slow construction progress [18][19] - The coal and coke prices may experience short-term fluctuations, influenced by production and safety inspections in coal mines [20][21] - The silicon metal market is facing pressure from the establishment of polysilicon platform companies, which may affect future production expectations [30] - The lithium carbonate market is showing signs of weakening demand, with expectations of inventory accumulation in the first quarter of 2026 [29] - The agricultural sector, particularly cotton and sugar, is experiencing mixed signals with supply pressures and seasonal demand fluctuations [33][35] Energy Sector Insights - Crude oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to oversupply, despite geopolitical tensions in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East [46] - Fuel oil prices are influenced by geopolitical factors and are expected to follow crude oil price trends [47] - The plastic market is facing supply pressures, with expectations of weak demand impacting prices [48]