国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2][5] - Silver: Undergoing high - level adjustment [2][5] - Copper: Price is回调 due to capital liquidation [2][12] - Zinc: Trading in a range [2][15] - Lead: Decline in LME inventory restricts price drop [2][19] - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [2][22] - Aluminum: Following the trend of copper; Alumina: Moving sideways; Cast aluminum alloy: Slightly declining [2][26] - Platinum: Retreating as capital exits; Palladium: Following platinum's retreat [2][29] - Nickel: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities; Stainless steel: Fundamentals limit its flexibility, but attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [2][33] Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: For gold,沪金2602 closed at 1,007.18 with a - 0.90% daily gain and 975.80 in the night session with a - 4.00% gain; Comex黄金2602 closed at 4350.20 with a - 4.64% daily gain. For silver,沪银2602 closed at 18205 with a - 0.66% daily gain and 17237.00 in the night session with a - 8.74% gain; Comex白银2602 closed at 71.640 with a - 10.08% daily gain. Trading volumes of both gold and silver futures showed significant changes compared to the previous day [5] - Inventory and Spread: Gold ETF and silver ETF holdings had minor changes. Gold and silver inventories in different markets also changed, and various spreads such as futures spreads and spot - futures spreads showed different trends [5] - Macro News: Trump is considering suing Powell for "gross negligence" and may announce the next Fed Chair in January; multiple geopolitical events occurred [5][7][8][9] Copper - Price and Trading Volume:沪铜主力合约 closed at 98,860 with a 0.14% daily gain and 96060 in the night session with a - 2.83% gain;伦铜3M电子盘 closed at 12,188 with a 0.45% daily gain. Trading volumes of沪铜指数 and伦铜3M电子盘 increased compared to the previous day [12] - Inventory and Spread:沪铜 and伦铜 inventories changed, and注销仓单比 of伦铜 decreased. LME copper升贴水 increased, and various spreads such as spot - futures spreads and inter - contract spreads also changed [12] - Macro and Industry News: National industrial enterprise profit data was released; Peru extended small - scale miners' licenses; Kazakhstan's refined copper output increased; China's copper ore imports increased; Chile's copper mine may face a strike [12][14] Zinc - Price and Trading Volume:沪锌主力收盘价 was 23255 with a 0.37% gain;伦锌3M电子盘收 was 3086.5 with a - 0.32% gain. Trading volumes of沪锌主力 and伦锌 changed compared to the previous day [15] - Inventory and Spread:沪锌期货 and LME锌库存 decreased, and various spreads such as升贴水 and import - related spreads changed [15] - News: There are concerns about the US market from July to November next year according to Nomura; the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates [16] Lead - Price and Trading Volume:沪铅主力收盘价 was 17490 with a - 0.37% gain;伦铅3M电子盘收 was 1999.5 with a 0.83% gain. Trading volumes of沪铅主力 and伦铅 changed compared to the previous day [19] - Inventory and Spread: LME铅库存 decreased significantly, and various spreads such as升贴水 and import - related spreads changed [19] - News: National industrial enterprise profit data was released; Zelensky plans to meet with Trump [20] Tin - Price and Trading Volume:沪锡主力合约 closed at 334,590 with a - 1.17% daily gain and 319,290 in the night session with a - 6.73% gain;伦锡3M电子盘 closed at 40,010 with a - 5.84% daily gain. Trading volumes of沪锡主力合约 and伦锡3M电子盘 changed compared to the previous day [22] - Inventory and Spread:沪锡 and伦锡 inventories changed, and various spreads such as现货 - futures spreads and inter - contract spreads changed [22] - Macro and Industry News: Multiple geopolitical and policy - related events occurred [23][24] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: For aluminum,沪铝主力合约收盘价 was 22570 and LME铝3M收盘价 was 2951. For alumina,沪氧化铝主力合约收盘价 was 2751. For cast aluminum alloy,铝合金主力合约收盘价 was 21590. Trading volumes and open interests of these contracts changed [26] - Inventory and Spread: Aluminum inventories in different markets changed, and various spreads such as升贴水 and inter - contract spreads changed [26] - Comprehensive News: The new digital RMB system will be launched on January 1, 2026 [28] Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: Platinum and palladium futures and spot prices decreased. Trading volumes and open interests of platinum and palladium futures changed compared to the previous day [29] - Inventory and Spread: Platinum and palladium ETF holdings and inventories changed, and various spreads such as futures spreads and spot - futures spreads changed [29] - Macro and Industry News: The State Council Tariff Commission issued the 2026 tariff adjustment plan [31] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume:沪镍主力收盘价 was 125,710 and不锈钢主力收盘价 was 12,910. Trading volumes of沪镍主力 and不锈钢主力 changed [33] - Industry - Related Data: Various industry - related data such as镍板 - 高镍铁价差,镍板进口利润, and prices of related products in the nickel and stainless - steel industry chains changed [33] - Macro and Industry News: Multiple events in the Indonesian nickel industry, including mine take - over, sanctions, policy changes, and production impacts; Fed officials' dovish remarks; China's steel product export license management; and potential changes in the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price formula [33][34][36]