Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports about industry investment ratings. Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts such as the US - Ukraine meeting and Saudi's air - strikes in Yemen bring geopolitical premiums to oil prices, while the short - term cease - fire is difficult, which restricts Russia's oil production and export [1]. - Precious metals have a significant decline recently. Although supported by the Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks, the large increase driven by funds has accumulated risks, and exchanges have adjusted margins and trading restrictions [2]. - Different metals and energy products have their own supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper shows tight supply in 2026 Q1, while aluminum's follow - up rise lacks fundamental drive [3][4]. - Agricultural products' prices are affected by factors like weather, supply, and demand. For instance, South American weather impacts soybean prices, and domestic policies and procurement affect domestic soybean prices [34][37]. - Building materials and chemical products' prices are also influenced by supply - demand relationships and policies. For example, PVC has a high - supply and low - demand pattern, and polypropylene's demand is weak [27][26]. Summary by Categories Metals - Copper: Overnight, LME copper decreased in position to 96,000. It has priced in the tight supply of copper concentrates in 2026, especially Q1. The domestic spot discount has widened, and the SMM social inventory has increased to 214,800 tons. Hold an option combination of selling a call option with a strike price of 104,000 and buying a put option with a strike price of 98,000 [3]. - Aluminum: Overnight, precious metals' sharp decline led to a fall in non - ferrous metals. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the rise, with weak fundamental drive, poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Long positions should be held with the 40 - day line as support, and the trend may adjust if it breaks [4]. - Zinc: TC continues to decline, refineries' production cuts continue, and the SMM zinc social inventory has decreased by 13,000 tons to 111,900 tons. The supply - side pressure has weakened, but consumption is in the off - season. The price of Shanghai zinc may fluctuate between 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [6]. - Nickel: The price of Shanghai nickel has adjusted. The quota of Indonesian nickel mines in 2026 will be reduced to 2.5 billion tons, and the mineral benchmark price formula will be modified. The short - term market is dominated by policy sentiment, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - Tin: Overnight, the weighted position of Shanghai tin decreased, and it may continue to fall towards the long - term moving average. It is recommended to hold a call option with a strike price of 350,000 and observe the adjustment range [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: It has a limit - down. The futures price is in a strong - side shock, but above 120,000 yuan, it deviates from the fundamentals, and it is short - term bearish [10]. Energy - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Geopolitical factors support prices in the short term, but do not change the supply - surplus situation. Low - sulfur supply is affected by overseas refinery operations, and the demand for ship fuel is weak. It is expected to maintain a weak - side operation [20]. - Asphalt: Since December, the weekly shipment has been below 400,000 tons. The geopolitical conflict may bring a phased rebound, but it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern due to supply - demand looseness [21]. Building Materials - Steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil): The night - session steel prices fluctuated. Rebar's apparent demand decreased in the off - season, while hot - rolled coil's demand recovered. The supply pressure is gradually relieved, and the price may fluctuate in a range [13]. - Iron Ore: The global shipment has increased, and the domestic arrival volume may increase in the future. With the iron - making water production likely at the bottom, there is support for the short - term price, but it is expected to fluctuate [14]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The prices of both fluctuated downward. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand has some resilience, but the pressure on raw material prices remains. The price may face fundamental pressure after correcting the premium or discount [15][16]. Chemicals - Methanol: The methanol market is strong. The port inventory increased last week, but it is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle in the medium - term. It is advisable to pay attention to the 5 - 9 spread positive arbitrage [23]. - Pure Benzene: The night - session oil price rebounded, and the pure benzene price slightly declined. The port inventory is high, but the supply - demand pressure may ease in the future. It is advisable to consider the spread positive arbitrage in the medium - term [24]. - Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene: The demand support for the market is weak. The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the demand for polypropylene is also weak [26]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans and Related Products: South American weather improves, and the market is worried about US soybean exports. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate at the bottom [34]. - Corn: The spot price of corn in Northeast China and North Ports is strong. The cold weather makes farmers reluctant to sell. The price of Dalian corn futures may oscillate strongly in the short - term [38]. - Pigs: The spot price of pigs increased over the weekend. The short - term price may remain strong, but there is a high probability of a second bottom - probing in the first half of next year [39]. - Eggs: The spot price of eggs is in a low - level oscillation. The 2 - month contract may be weak, while the 4 - and 5 - month contracts in the first half of next year may be relatively strong [40]. - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton decreased yesterday. Although the new cotton production increased this year, the commercial inventory is low, and the sales progress is fast. The price shows an oscillating and strong trend [41]. - Sugar: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the US sugar faces pressure. The production progress in Guangxi is slow, and the Zhengzhou sugar has rebounded, but the rebound may be limited [42]. - Apples: The futures price oscillates. The cold - storage trading is scarce, and the market demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to maintain a bearish view [43]. Others - Shipping (Container Freight Index - Europe Line): The current spot freight rate is around $2900/FEU. Before the Spring Festival, the freight rate may first rise and then fall. The market will become clearer after the release of the opening - cabin price in mid - January [19]. - Paper Pulp: The paper pulp price dropped significantly yesterday. The short - term rise is limited by weak downstream demand. The port inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks [45]. - Stock Index: A - share indices were mixed yesterday, and stock index futures closed down. In a loose liquidity and strong - RMB environment, A - shares are expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to track the rotation opportunities of different sectors [46]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bond futures generally closed down on December 29, 2025. The short - end has strong certainty, and it is advisable to participate in the curve - steepening strategy in the short - term [47].
综合晨报-20251230
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-12-30 02:08