Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are under pressure, and caution is advised [7]. - The stock index is expected to have its fluctuation center gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [8][9]. - The precious metal market is expected to have significantly amplified volatility. Investors can exit long positions and wait and see [10][11]. - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue weak oscillations. Investors can focus on high - level short - selling opportunities during rebounds [12]. - The iron ore market has a weak supply - demand pattern, but the futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can focus on high - level short - selling opportunities [14]. - Coking coal and coke futures may continue weak oscillations in the short term. Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities [17]. - For ferroalloys, after a decline, investors can consider low - level long opportunities when the spot loss expands [20]. - For crude oil, due to the progress of the Ukraine peace plan and the double - holiday period, investors should watch more and trade less [21][22]. - Fuel oil may follow the decline of crude oil. The main contract should be temporarily observed [23][24]. - For polyolefins, investors should focus on long - buying opportunities [25]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate [28]. - Natural rubber may show a slightly strong oscillating trend in the short term [29][30]. - For PVC, pay attention to changes on the supply side [31][34]. - The downward space for urea is limited [35][36]. - PX may oscillate and adjust in the short term. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to participate at low levels [37]. - PTA may oscillate in the short term. Investors should operate cautiously and pay attention to oil price changes [38]. - Ethylene glycol may maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern in the short term. Investors can participate in a range and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [39]. - Short - fiber may follow the raw material price to oscillate. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40]. - Bottle chips are expected to oscillate following the cost side. Investors should control risks [41]. - For lithium carbonate, investors should operate cautiously and control risks [43]. - Copper prices may run at a high level, but there may be a callback after the sentiment fades [44][45]. - Aluminum prices may oscillate at a high level [47][48]. - Zinc may maintain an oscillating state [49][50]. - Lead prices may oscillate within a wide range [51][53]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly [54]. - For nickel, pay attention to relevant policies in Indonesia [55]. - For soybean meal, investors can focus on long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, investors can focus on long opportunities for call options in the low - level range [56][57]. - For palm oil, investors should temporarily wait and see [58][60]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, investors should temporarily wait and see [61]. - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly [65][66]. - The upward space for sugar is limited [67][69]. - Apple prices are expected to run strongly in the medium and long term but may be dragged down in the short term [70][72]. - For live pigs, investors should continue to track the slaughter rhythm and consider waiting and seeing [73][74]. - For eggs, investors can consider a positive spread strategy [75][76]. - Corn starch may follow the corn market. Investors should wait for the release of supply pressure [77][78]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted a 482.3 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on December 29, with a net investment of 415 billion yuan on the day [5]. - The current macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level, and the market risk preference has significantly increased. Treasury bond futures are under pressure [7]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. From January to November, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 1% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 3.1% year - on - year [8]. - The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the asset valuation is low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. The market sentiment has warmed up recently, and the index is expected to rise [8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver fell. The current global environment is complex, which is beneficial to the value of gold, but the speculative sentiment has significantly increased [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. In the medium term, the prices are dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining, and the market is entering the off - season. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the inventory is higher than last year [12]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures rose significantly. Since October, the daily output of molten iron has declined, the supply has increased, and the port inventory is at a high level. The supply - demand pattern is weak, but the futures may be strong in the short term [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures slightly corrected. The production of domestic coking coal has decreased, and the demand for coke has weakened. The futures may continue weak oscillations in the short term [16][17]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The supply of manganese ore has recovered, the cost of ferroalloys has fluctuated slightly, the production has declined, the demand is weak, and the inventory has continued to increase [19]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil fell significantly. Mexico's crude oil production in November was lower than in previous years. The Ukraine peace plan has made progress, and investors should watch more and trade less during the holiday [21]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased, and the cost of crude oil decreased. Fuel oil may follow the decline of crude oil [23]. Polyolefins - The previous trading day, the prices of PP and LLDPE in the market showed different trends. After the e - commerce activities ended, the demand for related products decreased, and the industry's average start - up rate was declining [24]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose. It is supported by cost and demand in the short term. The raw material price has increased, the supply is abundant, the demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the inventory has increased [26][27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The supply in the Hainan production area is decreasing, the overseas supply is under pressure, the tire production capacity utilization rate has changed, the inventory is accumulating seasonally, and the delivery supply has increased [29]. PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose. The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand of downstream products has decreased, the cost has decreased, and the profit has increased [31]. Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract closed flat. This week, the urea market is expected to fluctuate slightly. The industry's overall start - up has decreased, the demand of downstream products has changed differently, the cost is stable, and the profit has increased slightly [35]. PX - The previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract fell. The PXN spread and short - process profit are being repaired, the start - up is stable, but the cost of crude oil has decreased, and it may oscillate in the short term [37]. PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell. The supply has increased slightly, the demand has decreased, the export has increased, and the processing fee has recovered. It may oscillate in the short term [38]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell. The start - up load has increased, some devices have plans to stop or restart, the port inventory has increased, and the demand has weakened. It may maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern [39]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2602 main contract fell. The supply is at a high level, the terminal factory's inventory has increased, the cost drive has strengthened, and it may follow the raw material price to oscillate [40]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, the bottle chips 2603 main contract fell. The processing fee is stable, the supply and demand structure has improved slightly, and it may follow the cost side to oscillate [41]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell. The supply is high, the consumption has improved, the inventory has decreased, and the price is easily affected by news. Investors should operate cautiously [43]. Copper - The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. The US economic data is neutral to positive, and the domestic policy is positive. The copper concentrate processing fee has decreased next year, the inventory has increased, and the consumption is in the off - season. The copper price may run at a high level but may callback [44]. Aluminum - The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts fell. The price of imported ore has decreased, the supply of alumina exceeds demand, the production of electrolytic aluminum is stable, the processing enterprise's start - up rate has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The aluminum price may oscillate at a high level [46][47]. Zinc - The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract fell. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee is below the cost line, the production is likely to decrease, the consumption is in the off - season, the overseas supply has increased, and the inventory has decreased. It may maintain an oscillating state [49]. Lead - The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract fell. The supply is weak, the consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is low. The lead price may oscillate within a wide range [51]. Tin - The previous trading day, the tin main contract fell. The supply of tin ore is tight, the demand has certain resilience, and the inventory has decreased. The tin price is expected to oscillate strongly [54]. Nickel - The previous trading day, the nickel main contract fell. Indonesia's nickel policy has changed, the cost may rise, the supply of nickel ore is affected, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is at a relatively high level, and it is in an over - supply pattern [55]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures fell. Brazilian soybeans are growing well, the US soybean harvest pressure still exists, the soybean crushing volume is high, the inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the inventory of soybean oil has decreased slightly. The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly [56]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices have fallen, but the decline is limited due to production decline and strong demand expectations. The export volume has increased, and the domestic inventory has accumulated. Investors should wait and see [58][60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed is in a quiet trading mode. Domestic rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal imports have different changes. The inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is in different states. Investors should wait and see [61]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell, and the overseas market fluctuated. In 2026, Xinjiang will reduce the cotton planting area. The domestic cotton output has increased, the export decline has narrowed, the supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is resilient. The cotton price is expected to run strongly [62][65]. Sugar - The previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated, and the overseas raw sugar rose slightly. The domestic sugar import in November decreased year - on - year, and Brazil's sugar export decreased slightly. The domestic new sugar supply pressure is increasing, and the upward space is limited [67][68]. Apple - The previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. The apple inventory has decreased, the new - season output has decreased, and the quality has declined. The price is expected to run strongly in the medium and long term but may be dragged down in the short term [70][71]. Live Pigs - The previous day, the national average price of live pigs rose. The supply in the market is limited, the demand in the south is strong, the supply of large - weight pigs is decreasing, and the inventory of frozen products has decreased. Investors should continue to track the slaughter rhythm [73]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the price of eggs rose. The cost has increased, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, the supply is expected to decrease in December, the demand may weaken after the New Year, and investors can consider a positive spread strategy [75][76]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The northern port inventory is low, the sales progress in the northeast is fast, the import has decreased significantly, the demand is growing slightly, the corn starch inventory is at a high level, and it may follow the corn market [77][78].
早间评论-20251230
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-12-30 02:07