KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-12-30 02:15Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the compound fertilizer industry is experiencing a favorable supply-demand dynamic, with expectations for leading companies to see volume and profit recovery, as well as increased dividends [5][7][28] - The compound fertilizer market is transitioning towards new types of fertilizers that are more efficient, specialized, functional, and precise, driven by changes in agricultural practices and consumer demand [28] Summary by Sections 1. Demand Side - The consumption of compound fertilizers has a strong necessity attribute, with the compound fertilizer application rate in China expected to continue rising. From 2000 to 2023, the application of compound fertilizers increased from 9.18 million tons to 24.01 million tons, with a CAGR of 4.3%, while the overall fertilizer application rate reached 47.8% in 2023 [20][24][22] 2. Supply Side - The compound fertilizer industry operates on a sales-based production model, with a low operating rate. As of November 2025, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity was 134.14 million tons, with an annualized operating rate of 38.8% [27][39][36] - The industry is characterized by a seasonal demand pattern, with production concentrated in resource-rich areas or sales locations, leading to a fragmented capacity distribution [28][39] 3. Price Review and Competitive Landscape - The pricing of compound fertilizers is primarily based on a cost-plus model, with raw material costs accounting for over 80% of total costs. The report notes that fluctuations in raw material prices significantly impact the profitability of compound fertilizers [43][42] - Leading companies are enhancing their competitive advantages through comprehensive strategies involving cost management, product development, branding, and distribution channels [6][7][28] 4. Company Analysis - Key players in the compound fertilizer industry include New Yangfeng, Yuntu Holdings, and Stanley, all of which have demonstrated significant advantages in terms of production capacity and integrated supply chains [6][7][28] - New Yangfeng has a production capacity of 7.98 million tons of compound fertilizers and has maintained a leading position in sales volume for several years [6][7] - Yuntu Holdings focuses on developing a nitrogen-phosphorus fertilizer industry chain and has a production capacity of 7.45 million tons [6][7] - Stanley employs a comprehensive business model that integrates branding, channels, products, and services, with a production capacity of 5.90 million tons [6][7]