贵金属：贵金属日报2025-12-30-20251230

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals are in an accelerated upward phase, but may face short - term significant corrections in January next year due to the Fed "holding steady", yet this does not mark the end of the current upward cycle for gold and silver [4] - The Trump administration has the motivation to further loosen fiscal policies under the pressure of the mid - term elections, and the Fed will enter a more aggressive interest - rate cut cycle after Powell officially steps down [4] - Currently, the prices of gold and silver have fully reflected the expectations of monetary and fiscal policies. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines and not open new long or short positions. The reference operating range for the Shanghai Gold main contract is 940 - 1001 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver main contract is 15666 - 18658 yuan/kilogram [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Categories Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold dropped 4.00% to 975.80 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver dropped 8.74% to 17237.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4344.70 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 71.20 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.14%, and the US dollar index was 98.01 [2] - Trump considered suing Fed Chairman Powell and thought he should resign. The new Fed Chairman's candidate will be announced in January [2] Policy Expectations - The selection of the new Fed Chairman has led the market to price in an aggressive easing policy by the Fed next year. Although the current Fed officials only expect one 25bps interest - rate cut next year, the market's expectations for the Fed's monetary policy are focused on the new chairman's selection. Two Trump - camp members are likely candidates, and both support Trump's desired interest - rate cut policy. The Fed is likely to conduct more aggressive interest - rate cuts in the second half of next year, which has pushed the international silver price to a new record high [3] Data Summary of Gold and Silver - Gold: COMEX gold's closing price decreased by 4.64% to 4350.20 dollars/ounce, trading volume increased by 71.84% to 30.78 million lots, and open interest increased by 8.91% to 47.11 million lots; LBMA gold's closing price dropped by 3.21% to 4337.05 dollars/ounce; SHFE gold's closing price fell by 0.90% to 1007.18 yuan/gram, trading volume rose by 56.72% to 50.22 million lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.15% to 33.76 million lots [6] - Silver: COMEX silver's closing price decreased by 10.08% to 71.64 dollars/ounce, open interest decreased by 1.19% to 15.29 million lots, and inventory dropped by 0.13% to 13969 tons; LBMA silver's closing price increased by 3.40% to 74.64 dollars/ounce; SHFE silver's closing price fell by 0.62% to 18205.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume rose by 70.96% to 493.06 million lots, and open interest decreased by 6.77% to 72.23 million lots [6] Price Structure and Spread - Gold: On December 29, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread was 28.52 yuan/gram (126.53 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 29.13 yuan/gram (129.47 dollars/ounce) [53] - Silver: On December 29, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread was 2288.16 yuan/kilogram (10.17 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 2569.09 yuan/kilogram (11.42 dollars/ounce) [53][62]