中辉有色观点-20251230

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, for each metal variety, the following ratings are provided: - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Control risks [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure, medium - long - term short - allocation [1] - Lead: Rebound and then fall [1] - Tin: Rise and then fall [1] - Aluminum: Rise and then fall [1] - Nickel: Rebound and then fall [1] - Industrial silicon: Under pressure, medium - long - term short - selling on rallies [1] - Polysilicon: High - level adjustment, wait - and - see [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level adjustment, wait - and - see [1] Core Views - The prices of precious metals such as gold and silver have large fluctuations. Gold has long - term strategic allocation value, while silver has short - term risks and long - term bullish logic [1][2][3]. - Copper prices have pulled back significantly due to the approaching New Year's Day holiday. In the short term, it is recommended to wait for a full correction and then enter the market at low prices. In the medium - long term, copper is still optimistic [1][4][5][6]. - Zinc prices are under pressure to fall due to factors such as the approaching holiday, the increase in visible inventory, and the decline in processing fees. In the medium - long term, it is a short - allocation in the sector [1][7][8][9]. - Aluminum prices have fallen from high levels. It is recommended to take profits in the short term and wait and see, paying attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory [1][10][11][12][13]. - Nickel prices rebound under pressure. It is recommended to take profits and wait and see in the short term, paying attention to the change of stainless steel inventory [1][14][15][16][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices have a high - level correction. It is recommended to wait and see [1][18][19][20][21]. Summary by Metal Variety Gold - Core view: Long - term holding. The large fluctuations of silver and platinum affect gold. In the short term, there are no major events driving the fundamentals, and the risk preference for liquidity is acceptable. In the medium - long term, the geopolitical order is being reshaped, and central banks continue to buy gold, so the long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged [1]. Silver - Core view: Control risks. Short - term over - heated funds are retreating. The gold - silver ratio has decreased rapidly, and the market is in an over - bought range, so beware of high - volatility risks. In the long term, the market bets on continuous interest rate cuts, continuous supply - demand gaps for five years, and global large - scale fiscal policies are all beneficial to silver, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged [1]. Copper - Market performance: The price of Shanghai copper has pulled back from a high level. The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 96,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.38% [4]. - Industry logic: The global copper concentrate supply remains tight. The long - term agreement TC for 2026 is 0 US dollars/ton. In November, China's electrolytic copper production increased slightly, imports decreased, and exports increased significantly. High copper prices have an obvious inhibitory effect on demand, and the spot discount has widened [5]. - Strategy recommendation: Wait for a full correction and then enter the market at low prices. In the medium - long term, copper is still optimistic. The short - term attention range for Shanghai copper is [93,500, 98,500] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [11,800, 12,300] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - Market performance: The price of Shanghai zinc has fallen under pressure. The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 23,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% [7]. - Industry logic: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee has decreased, and some high - cost smelters are facing increased losses. Consumption has entered the off - season, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory of zinc ingots has decreased [8]. - Strategy recommendation: Enterprises are recommended to sell hedging and actively lay out on rallies. In the medium - long term, zinc supply increases and demand decreases, and it is still a short - allocation in the sector. The attention range for Shanghai zinc is [22,800, 23,300] yuan/ton, and for London zinc is [3,050, 3,100] US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - Market performance: The aluminum price has fallen from a high level, and the alumina price has stabilized at a low level. The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,570 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74% [10][11]. - Industry logic: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost of some aluminum enterprises in the southwest region may increase due to the approaching dry season. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased slightly, and the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has decreased. For alumina, the overseas bauxite shipment has returned to normal, and the inventory has continued to accumulate [12]. - Strategy recommendation: Take profits in the short term and wait and see, paying attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [21,900 - 22,900] yuan/ton [13]. Nickel - Market performance: The nickel price rebounds under pressure, and the stainless steel price rebounds. The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 125,710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.82% [14][15]. - Industry logic: Indonesia has significantly reduced the nickel ore production target for 2026. The inventory of nickel at home and abroad remains at a high level. The stainless steel market is in the off - season, and the downstream demand is weak [16]. - Strategy recommendation: Take profits and wait and see in the short term, paying attention to the change of stainless steel inventory. The main operating range for nickel is [120,000 - 131,000] yuan/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The main contract LC2605 has risen and then fallen, hitting the daily limit at the end of the session [19]. - Industry logic: The weekly production has increased slightly, and the total inventory has maintained a slight de - stocking. However, the production schedule of cathode material factories in January has decreased by more than 10%, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [20]. - Strategy recommendation: Wait and see, with the range of [113,700 - 123,700] yuan/ton [21].