资讯早班车-2025-12-30-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global economic and financial markets are experiencing significant fluctuations, with various industries showing different trends. For example, the metal market has seen extreme price swings, the energy market has supply - related changes, and the stock and bond markets have their own performance characteristics [4][10][30] - China is implementing a series of economic policies, such as tariff adjustments and promoting the development of digital RMB, which will have an impact on domestic and international trade and the financial system [2][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Data - GDP in Q3 2025 grew by 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% [1] - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, both showing certain trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - Social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, and other monetary indicators also had corresponding changes in November 2025 [1] Commodity Investment Comprehensive - From January 1, 2026, China will implement import provisional tax rates lower than the most - favored - nation rates for 935 commodities to enhance resource linkage and expand high - quality supply [2] - On December 29, 2025, 40 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 26 had negative basis [2] Metal - Precious metals had a volatile "Black Monday". Silver first soared and then plunged, dragging down other precious metals. International and domestic metal prices and futures contracts showed significant declines [4][5] - On December 29, 2025, CME Group raised metal futures trading margins, triggering price drops [5] - In 2025, silver prices broke a 45 - year record and were higher than crude oil prices, driven by industrial and investment demand [5] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Ore - Bauxite miner Axis has filed a $29 billion claim against Guinea [9] Energy and Chemicals - U.S. refineries are expected to have capacity outages in the coming weeks, with the scale increasing [10] - India's oil imports from Russia in December 2025 are expected to exceed 1 million barrels per day [10] Agricultural Products - China's grain output in 2025 was 1.43 trillion jin, a 1.2% increase from the previous year, mainly due to the increase in corn production [12] - As of December 2025, the autumn grain purchase volume exceeded 200 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32 million tons [13] Financial News Open Market - On December 29, 2025, the central bank conducted 482.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 415 billion yuan [14] Important News - The Chinese military conducted the "Justice Mission - 2025" exercise around Taiwan [15] - China will start to pay interest on digital RMB from January 1, 2026 [15] Bond Market - The bond market was generally weak, with treasury bond futures falling and bond yields rising [21] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0098 on December 29, 2025, down 13 points from the previous trading day [26] Research Report Highlights - Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that in the short term, the bond market carry strategy is relatively certain, and there is room for the repair of long - end bonds [27] - CITIC Securities suggests paying attention to high - grade state - owned enterprise perpetual bonds in industries such as public utilities, transportation, and construction [27] Stock Market - A - shares showed a divergence between large and small indexes. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell [30] - Hong Kong stocks fluctuated, with the Hang Seng Index falling 0.71% [30]