生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found in the provided text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global sugar market is in a state of oversupply. Brazil has entered the off - season, while India and Thailand are likely to have a bumper sugar harvest. In the domestic market, the opening of sugar mills in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong has increased, leading to a seasonal supply pressure. Although there is a short - term consumption peak and a reduction in imported sugar, the overall sugar price is expected to be weak [3]. - The long - term supply pressure of pulp is gradually easing, and the cancellation of old broad - leaf pulp warehouse receipts and the increase in new warehouse receipt costs may drive up the bottom of the market. However, the current global supply of bleached softwood pulp is not tight, and the inventory of domestic and European ports is relatively high. The domestic pulp and paper industry has a low profit, and it is difficult to form a trend - upward market in the short term [3]. - The apple futures price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. The new - season production, good - fruit rate, and peak value are lower than the previous year, which provides support, but the lack of consumption growth also restricts the upward movement [19]. - For cotton, the external market is at a low level, while the domestic market has a positive outlook. The long - term positive factors are strong, and the futures price is expected to move upward [19]. - The jujube futures price may show a short - term rebound. The reduction in production may be reflected in the far - month contracts, and investors can consider buying at low prices [19]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - Apple 2605: Adopt an interval trading strategy. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 9700 - 9800. The new - season production, good - fruit rate, and peak value are lower than the previous year, but the lack of consumption growth restricts the upward movement [19]. - Jujube 2605: Consider short - term buying at low prices. The support range is 9000 - 9300, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800. The reduction in production may be reflected in the far - month contracts [19]. - Sugar 2605: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy. The support range is 5000 - 5030, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5330. The increase in sugar production in India and the domestic new - sugar listing increase the supply, but the reduction in imported sugar and the improvement in demand alleviate the supply pressure to some extent [19]. - Pulp 2605: Adopt an interval - long strategy. The support range is 5300 - 5400, and the pressure range is 5600 - 5800. The upward movement of the futures price may face delivery pressure, and the fundamental improvement is limited [19]. - Double - offset Paper 2605: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy. The support range is 3900 - 4000, and the pressure range is 4200 - 4300. The raw material price fluctuations affect the cost, but the spot price is stable, and the futures price is expected to move within a range [19]. - Cotton 2605: Hold long positions cautiously. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14800 - 15000. The external market is at a low level, while the domestic market has a positive outlook, and the long - term positive factors are strong [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - Fundamental Information: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of December 25, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 702,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 106,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 857,800 tons [20]. - Spot Market: In Shandong, the trading shifted from outside the warehouse to inside the warehouse. The cold - storage mainly traded 75 - 80 slice - red apples suitable for export and small - volume purchases of inferior and third - grade fruits. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage mainly sold low - quality and low - price apples. In the sales area, the arrival volume in the wholesale market increased compared with November, and the sales were stable [20][21][22]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of last week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 16,108 tons, a week - on - week increase of 318 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%, and a year - on - year increase of 34.68%. The procurement in Xinjiang is approaching the end [23]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market As of December 28, 2025, 38 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, an increase of 7 compared with the same period last year. All 73 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, a decrease of 1 compared with the same period last year. In November 2025, the import of syrup and premixed powder was 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [24]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market In November 2025, the total import volume of pulp was 3.246 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.0% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. The export volume of Brazilian broad - leaf pulp was 1.6206 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 7.0% [28]. 3.2.5 Double - offset Paper Market The inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.76% compared with last Thursday, and the weekly increase rate narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand was still weak, and the overall inventory pressure increased. The operating rate was 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points [29]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market In October 2025, the retail sales of clothing and clothing accessories in the United States increased by 5.72% year - on - year and 0.87% month - on - month. In November 2025, Japan's clothing imports entered the off - season, with a significant month - on - month decrease in import volume and value and a slight year - on - year increase [30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9163 | - 84 | - 0.91% | | Jujube 2605 | 8970 | - 10 | - 0.11% | | Sugar 2605 | 5253 | - 32 | - 0.61% | | Pulp 2605 | 5510 | - 120 | - 2.13% | | Cotton 2605 | 14435 | - 100 | - 0.69% | [31] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5360 | - 20 | - 670 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5550 | 0 | - 750 | | Double - offset Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4450 | 0 | - 500 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15541 | 224 | 835 | [37] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary was found in the provided text, only relevant figure references such as Figure 16 (Apple May Basis), Figure 17 (Jujube Main Contract Basis), etc. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 1 - 5 | 424 | - 23 | 973 | Oscillatory decline | Wait - and - see | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | 130 | 270 | - 490 | Interval oscillation | Wait - and - see | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 12 | 3 | - 45 | Oscillatory fluctuation | Wait - and - see | | Cotton | 1 - 5 | 35 | 5 | 65 | Interval fluctuation | Wait - and - see | [56] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary was found in the provided text, only relevant figure references such as Figure 29 (Top 20 Long Positions in Apple Futures), Figure 30 (Top 20 Short Positions in Apple Futures), etc. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 1171 | 79 | 46 | | Sugar | 5038 | 0 | - 5095 | | Pulp | 102980 | 2000 | - 231506 | | Cotton | 5085 | 232 | 2264 | [84] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary was found in the provided text, only relevant figure references such as Figure 53 (Apple Option Trading Volume), Figure 54 (Apple Option Open Interest), etc.