新增投产压力加大，出口政策影响市场节奏

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the supply - side of urea will see accelerated release of new production capacity, with over 6.5 million tons of new capacity expected to be put into operation, increasing the total domestic urea production capacity to 87 million tons by the end of 2026, and the daily output is expected to exceed 225,000 tons and reach a record high of 230,000 tons [5][168]. - The agricultural demand for urea is expected to peak after the Spring Festival and before the first half of the year. Overall, agricultural demand is stable, industrial demand is weak, and exports may become a key marginal variable for demand. The increase in export quotas in 2026 compared to 2025 will be a crucial factor affecting the market rhythm [5][169]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - In 2026, on the supply - side, new urea production capacity will continue to be released rapidly. On the demand - side, agricultural demand has a seasonal peak, and exports are a key variable [5]. 3.1.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: Weak before the Spring Festival, strong in the first half of the year, and mainly weak in the second half, with export quotas affecting the market rhythm [6][169]. - Arbitrage: Short - term weakness in inter - period arbitrage, and long - term positive arbitrage opportunities after the Spring Festival [6][169]. - Options: The lower margin is between 1550 - 1600, and the upper margin is between 2100 - 2200 [6][170]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In 2025, the domestic mainstream urea ex - factory price showed an "N" shape. It bottomed out in January, rebounded around the Spring Festival, had short - term rebounds after the release of export quotas in April, and then declined due to weakened demand in July and rebounded again in October [11]. 3.2.2 Supply Analysis - China's urea production capacity entered a de - capacity cycle after peaking in 2015 and started positive growth in 2021 due to new capacity release [34]. - In 2025, the net increase in urea production capacity was 6.5 million tons, and in 2026, it is expected to be about 6.5 million tons, with a production capacity growth rate of 7.9% [37][42]. - In 2025, the average daily urea production reached a new high, and the average daily production in 2026 is expected to exceed 210,000 tons in the second quarter [47][70]. - In 2026, coal prices will fluctuate within a range, and urea production profits will be further compressed. Demand growth may slow down, and high inventory may become normal. Attention should be paid to the winter maintenance of gas - head enterprises [57][67][75]. 3.2.3 Demand Analysis - Agricultural demand accounts for about 70% of urea demand, with seasonal characteristics. In 2025, China's grain production increased, and the demand for high - standard farmland showed steady growth [80][90][100]. - The price of urea has a significant comparative advantage over phosphate and potash fertilizers [103]. - Internationally, the total urea production capacity is expanding. India still has a large demand gap, and China's export quotas are expected to increase in 2026, with international prices affecting the export rhythm [112][121][125]. - The 2025/26 off - season storage policy continues the 2024/25 policy, and it is worth noting whether the rewards and punishments are linked to export quotas [136][140]. - Industrial demand for urea, mainly from the melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin industries, is expected to remain lackluster in 2026 [141][151]. - In 2026, the production of compound fertilizers will first rise and then fall, with different demand characteristics in different seasons [155][161]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.3.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Similar to the preface, in 2026, the supply - side will see new capacity release, and the demand - side will be affected by agricultural seasons and export quotas [168][169]. 3.3.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: Weak before the Spring Festival, strong in the first half of the year, and mainly weak in the second half, with export quotas affecting the market rhythm [169]. - Arbitrage: Short - term weakness in inter - period arbitrage, and long - term positive arbitrage opportunities after the Spring Festival [169]. - Options: The lower margin is between 1550 - 1600, and the upper margin is between 2100 - 2200 [170].