养殖油脂产业链日报策略报告-20251230

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Oil: South American soybean growth is good with a high probability of a bumper harvest, and US soybean exports are slow, leading to weak CBOT soybean futures prices. In the domestic market, concerns about soybean customs clearance have supported domestic bean prices, but overall soybean and soybean oil supplies are sufficient, suppressing price increases. With ample supply and limited short - term bullish drivers, it is advisable to hold short positions lightly. The support level for the main 05 contract is 7600 - 7650 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 7900 - 7950 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated on Monday. The current inventory is in a destocking state. With Australian rapeseed not yet in the crushing stage, the market's bullish sentiment has increased. The near - month contract prices have risen rapidly, but the upside of the 05 contract is limited due to expected supply increases. In the short - term, it is expected to remain volatile. In the long - term, supply increases and a global bumper harvest will put pressure on prices, while anti - dumping duties and high import costs provide some support. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side operations and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [1]. - Palm Oil: Palm oil fluctuated weakly on Monday. The fundamentals of the main producing areas have improved slightly, but the market still expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory to continue to accumulate in December, limiting price rebounds. With long - term deep import profit inversion and stagnant ship purchases in the past two weeks, there is some bottom support. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side operations and consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [2]. - Other Products: For other products such as soybeans, corn, and their derivatives, as well as livestock and poultry products like pigs and eggs, the report provides detailed market analyses, support and resistance levels, and corresponding trading strategies based on supply - demand relationships, inventory situations, and market sentiment [1][2][3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Judgment - Oilseeds: The 05 contract of soybeans (domestic) is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to hold short - term long positions; the 05 contract of soybeans (imported) is expected to rise first and then fall, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [9]. - Oils: The 05 contract of soybean oil is expected to be oscillating bearishly, and it is recommended to sell on rallies; the 05 contract of rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see; the 05 contract of palm oil is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to turn to a wait - and - see stance [9]. - Proteins: The 05 contract of soybean meal is expected to rise first and then fall, and it is recommended to sell on rallies; the 05 contract of rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see [9]. - Energy and By - products: The 03 contract of corn is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to take a short - term long - position approach; the 03 contract of corn starch is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to take a short - term long - position approach [9]. - Livestock Farming: The 03 contract of pigs is expected to find a bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position; the 05 contract of eggs is expected to find a bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to buy at low prices [9]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - Inter - delivery Arbitrage: For different products, the report provides current values, previous values, price changes, and corresponding arbitrage strategies, including waiting and seeing, positive spreads (buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts), and negative spreads (selling near - term contracts and buying far - term contracts) [10][11]. - Inter - commodity Arbitrage: For different product combinations, the report provides current values, previous values, price changes, and corresponding arbitrage strategies, such as waiting and seeing, bearish operations [11]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various products, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock farming products [12]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Tables 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - Daily Data: It includes import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, such as CNF prices, import duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [14][15]. - Weekly Data: It includes inventory changes and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as soybean (port) inventory, soybean meal (oil mill) inventory, and soybean oil (port) inventory [16][17]. 3.2.2 Feed - Daily Data: It includes the import cost data of corn from different countries and months [17]. - Weekly Data: It includes indicators such as the consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises, corn inventory, starch enterprise operating rate, and starch enterprise inventory [18]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - Daily Data: It includes daily data of pigs and eggs, such as spot prices, price changes, and basis changes [19][20]. - Weekly Data: It includes weekly key data of pigs and eggs, such as spot prices, breeding costs, profits, and inventory data [22][23]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Livestock Farming (Pigs and Eggs): It includes charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of pigs and eggs, spot prices, and related price indicators [24][25][26]. - Oils and Oilseeds: It includes charts related to palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts, such as production, exports, inventory, and basis [33][40][48]. - Feed: It includes charts related to corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal, such as closing prices, spot prices, basis, and inventory [51][58][63][70]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report provides charts of historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for various products, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts [86][88]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report provides charts of warehouse receipt quantities of various products, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [94][96][97][100][102].