宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年12月30日）-20251230

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist. The investment suggestion for TL2603 is to maintain a range - bound consolidation. Overall, Treasury bond futures are expected to remain range - bound in the short term, with both upward pressure and downward support [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term outlook is range - bound, the medium - term outlook is range - bound, and the intraday outlook is weak. The reference view is range - bound consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there are still medium - and long - term easing expectations [1] 2. Price Quotation Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is weak, and the medium - term view is range - bound. The reference view is range - bound consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and declined yesterday, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures having a relatively large decline. After last week's rebound, the Treasury bond yield decreased, reflecting certain expectations of central bank interest rate cuts. However, the central bank's interest rate cut rhythm will likely maintain strong determination, and the short - term rebound driven by interest rate cut expectations is limited. Additionally, the intensive issuance of Treasury bonds in Q1 2026 will bring supply - side pressure, suppressing the prices of Treasury bond cash bonds, especially medium - and long - term Treasury bonds [5]