短纤：扩能再起，瓶片：筑底修复

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Short - fiber: Oscillating [6] - Bottle chips: Oscillating [6] 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the new production capacity pressure of short - fiber is higher than that of bottle chips. Short - fiber's traditional demand growth is gentle and difficult to break through under the current situation, while its export is expected to maintain high growth. The annual supply - demand pattern of short - fiber will change from destocking to stockpiling, and its processing fee repair space is limited, expected to oscillate between 850 - 1300 yuan/ton. The bottle - chip industry will enter a new stage of "slower production and stable demand growth", with gradually easing supply - demand contradictions and a possible slight upward shift of the processing fee center, but the repair space is restricted [2][3][100][101]. - From a strategic perspective, pay attention to the inter - monthly reverse arbitrage opportunities before the new short - fiber production capacity is put into operation, the inter - monthly positive arbitrage opportunities during the peak demand season of bottle chips, and the phased opportunity of going long on PR and shorting on PF [4][102]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Short - fiber/Bottle - chip Trend Review - In 2025, the absolute prices of short - fiber and bottle chips followed the polyester raw materials and trended weakly, with the price center lower than that in 2024. The short - fiber processing fee remained strong throughout the year, while the bottle - chip processing fee center declined under pressure [14]. - In Q1, the spot and futures prices of short - fiber and bottle chips followed the raw materials to rise and then fall. Short - fiber factories coordinated production cuts to support prices, and bottle - chip factories reduced production to relieve inventory pressure, resulting in a slight repair of the processing fee [14]. - In Q2, the US trade policy adjustment caused pulse - like fluctuations in the polyester industry chain prices. After that, the industrial logic dominated. Short - fiber processing fees weakened, and bottle - chip processing fees quickly weakened and fluctuated near historical lows [15]. - In H2, the absolute prices of short - fiber and bottle chips followed the cost to decline weakly. Short - fiber inventory continued to be destocked and the processing fee remained firm, while bottle - chip industry leaders jointly reduced production, and the processing fee repaired moderately [15]. 3.2 Short - fiber: New Production Capacity Pressure Resurfaces, and Processing Fee Repair May Be Hindered 3.2.1 Supply Side: New Production Capacity to Be Put into Operation, Supply Pressure Low in the First Half and High in the Second Half - In 2025, the new short - fiber production capacity was 390,000 tons/year, with a year - on - year growth of 4.1%. The short - fiber output increased rapidly through the continuous load - increase of existing capacity, with an annual output of about 8.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. By the end of the year, the industry load reached 97.5% [21]. - In 2026 and 2027, there are plans to put into operation 800,000 tons/year and 1 million tons/year of new short - fiber production capacity respectively, with growth rates of 8% and 9.3%. In 2026, the supply pressure may be low in the first half and high in the second half [29][31]. 3.2.2 Demand Side: Traditional Demand Grows Steadily, and Short - fiber Export Volume Is Expected to Remain High - In 2025, short - fiber exports accounted for 18.7% of the total output and digested about 41% of the new production. Spinning is still the most important application area in traditional downstream demand [32]. - Traditional downstream demand: The growth rate of traditional downstream demand has slowed down, and the price - bearing capacity is weak. The total production of cloth and yarn has remained stable in recent years. The downstream enterprises are in a difficult cash - flow situation and are cautious about replenishing raw materials, which squeezes the short - fiber profit space [35][36]. - Short - fiber export: In the first 10 months of 2025, the short - fiber export volume increased by 29.6% year - on - year. The overseas short - fiber production capacity gap is large, and the anti - dumping impact of some countries is limited. Export may be the most important way to digest new short - fiber production in 2026 [39][42]. 3.2.3 Supply - Demand Pattern Changes from Destocking to Stockpiling, Pay Attention to Industrial Coordination and Regulation - Assuming a 20% growth rate of short - fiber exports and a 5% growth rate of domestic demand in 2026, the short - fiber production is expected to grow by 6.88%, and the supply - demand pattern will change from destocking to stockpiling, with a cumulative stock of 100,000 tons throughout the year [44]. - The upward space for short - fiber processing fees in 2026 is limited. The processing fees are expected to oscillate between 850 - 1300 yuan/ton, with a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half. The coordination willingness of leading enterprises will support the bottom of processing fees [47]. 3.3 Bottle Chips: Supply - Demand Contradictions Tend to Ease, and the Processing Fee Center May Move Slightly Upward 3.3.1 Supply Side: New Production Capacity Pressure Eases, and Industry Operation Rate May Be Revised Upward - In 2025, the new domestic bottle - chip production capacity was 1.55 million tons/year, and the capacity base at the end of the year was expected to be 21.47 million tons/year, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. The output from January to November was about 16.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13% [50][51]. - In 2026, the new bottle - chip production capacity cycle is basically ending, with only 700,000 tons/year of new production capacity planned to be put into operation, and the capacity growth rate is expected to be 3.3%. The low processing fee restricts the actual supply, and the industry operation rate has great upward elasticity [56][58]. 3.3.2 Demand Side: Few Bright Spots, and the Overall Growth Rate May Slow Down - Domestic demand: In 2025, the domestic demand for bottle chips was expected to reach 9.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. In 2026, domestic demand is expected to grow moderately, with limited demand pull from the soft - drink industry due to factors such as high base and lightweight packaging [63][66][67]. - Export: In the first 11 months of 2025, bottle - chip exports increased by 12.2% year - on - year. In 2026, bottle - chip exports are expected to have incremental space due to the expanding overseas supply - demand gap and the limited impact of trade frictions on the total export volume [79][82][90]. 3.3.3 Limited Supply - Demand Contradictions, Pay Attention to the Operation of Existing Devices - When the bottle - chip production growth rate is around 7.2%, the annual supply - demand difference in 2026 may be basically the same as that in 2025. The industry operation rate has an upward space of 3% - 4%. However, once the industry profit recovers, the supply elasticity will increase significantly [96]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - Fundamental analysis: Short - fiber's traditional demand growth is gentle, and exports are expected to maintain high growth. In 2026, new production capacity will be put into operation, and the supply - demand pattern will change from destocking to stockpiling. The processing fee repair space is limited, and the absolute price will oscillate with the raw materials. The bottle - chip industry will enter a new stage of "slower production and stable demand growth", with gradually easing supply - demand contradictions and limited processing fee repair space [100][101]. - Strategy analysis: In 2026, pay attention to the inter - monthly reverse arbitrage opportunities before the new short - fiber production capacity is put into operation, the inter - monthly positive arbitrage opportunities during the peak demand season of bottle chips, and the phased opportunity of going long on PR and shorting on PF [102].