碳酸锂：区间震荡，聚焦市场博弈，成材：重心下移偏弱运行

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The price of finished steel is expected to move downward with a weak trend, and it will operate in a range-bound and weak manner, with a focus on shock consolidation [1][3] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the market will focus on market games and marginal supply and demand, with a view of range-bound fluctuations [1][4] Group 3: Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Finished Steel - In the Yunnan-Guizhou region, short-process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid-to-late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, one of the six short-process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most of the other steel mills will stop production around mid-January, with an estimated daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown period [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly-built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decline from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year-on-year [2] - Yesterday, finished steel prices continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is also pessimistic, causing the price center to continue to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures fluctuated sharply, with an intraday amplitude of over 13%. The main contract opened high and moved high, then quickly fell back, hitting the daily limit of 117,400 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of over 8%, closing at 118,820 yuan/ton. Trading activity significantly rebounded, with trading volume increasing to 689,000 lots, and positions continued to shrink to 512,000 lots. The net short position of the main contract continued, and registered warehouse receipts continued to increase, indicating a looser market supply expectation [2] - On the spot side, the average price of electric carbon continued to rise to 118,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was -820 yuan/ton, maintaining a negative basis pattern. In the market transaction, due to a slight improvement in the rigid demand procurement gap, the price center continued to move up with rigid demand transactions [2] - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, raw material prices continued to rise last week, further strengthening cost support. The weekly operating rate and weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate both increased by 0.53% month-on-month, with the supply side steadily releasing but at a slower pace. On the demand side, short-term demand slightly decreased, while long-term demand was firmly supported. SMM data showed that last week, the output of ternary and lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.67% and 1.42% month-on-month respectively, and inventories decreased by 0.49% and 1.36% month-on-month respectively, continuing to decline. The output of power cells decreased by 0.41% month-on-month and increased by 39.1% year-on-year. New energy vehicle sales increased by 7.22% month-on-month, and the penetration rate increased by 7.47% month-on-month, showing a high year-on-year increase [3] - In terms of inventory, last week, the total weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased by 0.59% month-on-month and increased by 1.97% year-on-year, with the de-stocking slope slowing down. The total inventory days decreased by 0.38% month-on-month and 27.30% year-on-year. The inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end. Last week, the social inventory in four regions increased by 3.30% month-on-month, showing a phased accumulation, and decreased by 48.79% year-on-year, indicating that the tight inventory pattern remained unchanged, but the support of inventory for prices weakened marginally [3] - Policy-wise, the short-term regulatory tightening is clear, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has implemented measures such as trading limits to deal with price fluctuations. The Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and a series of deployments from the Central Economic Work Conference form a synergistic positive effect, combined with the focus on energy storage in the 14th Five-Year Plan and the continuation of new energy vehicle trade-in subsidies to support long-term supply and demand. With the release of market speculation sentiment and increased regulatory control, the futures price may maintain a range-bound consolidation [4]