油脂油料：申万期货品种策略日报-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For protein meals, night - session soybean and rapeseed meals fluctuated and closed lower. Chinese procurement plans are advancing steadily, providing support for US soybean futures prices. In the domestic market, the expectation of tight supply in the imported soybean market has pushed up the price of soybean meal, but the abundant long - term supply will continue to pressure the price [2]. - For oils and fats, night - session oils and fats fluctuated. The improvement of Malaysian palm oil export data boosted the palm oil market, but concerns about the implementation progress of Indonesia's B50 plan have emerged. Soybean oil is under pressure due to the expected high yield, and the short - term fundamental improvement of oils and fats is limited. The inventory pressure in Southeast Asian palm oil producing areas is difficult to relieve significantly in the short term, so the rebound of oils and fats is restricted and they are expected to continue to fluctuate [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Domestic Futures: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 7818, 8512, 9040, 2774, 2465, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were - 18, - 56, - 6, - 16, 6, and 26, with percentage changes of - 0.23%, - 0.65%, - 3.15%, - 0.57%, 0.24%, and 0.29% respectively. There were also changes in spreads and price - ratio spreads [1]. - International Futures: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4058, 1064, 49.26, and 304 respectively. The price changes were 48, - 8, 0, and - 4, with percentage changes of 1.20%, - 0.75%, 0.12%, and - 1.27% respectively [1]. Spot Market - Spot Prices and Basis: The spot prices of various oils, meals, and peanuts in different regions had different percentage changes. The spot basis also varied, such as 456 for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil and 300 for Nantong soybean meal [1]. - Spot Spreads: The spot spreads between different products, like the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, and between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, changed compared to the previous values [1]. Import and Profit - The import profit and loss of various agricultural products, such as Malaysian palm oil, US soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed, had different values compared to the previous ones [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 28,264, 0, 3,786, 24,830, 0, and 0 respectively, with some changes compared to the previous values [1]. Industry Information - From December, the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills has remained above 2 million tons. As of December 26, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was about 7.7 million tons, and it is expected to be about 8.9 million tons for the whole month of December, an increase of about 700,000 tons year - on - year and about 600,000 tons compared to the average of the past three years [2]. - A US private exporter reported selling 100,000 tons of soybeans to Egypt for delivery in the 2025/2026 fiscal year [2]. - As of December 27, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 97.9%, up from 97.6% last week, compared to 98.2% last year and a five - year average of 96.7%. The soybean harvesting rate was 0.1%, the same as last year and the five - year average [2].