国富期货早间看点-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and financial markets, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, and fund flows. It provides insights into the supply and demand dynamics of various commodities, as well as the economic and policy environment at both international and domestic levels [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Overnight行情 - Overnight prices and price changes are provided for various commodities such as palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. Currency exchange rates and their changes are also presented [1] Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes are reported for different regions for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal. CNF premiums and quotes are given for imported soybeans from different origins [2] Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - Brazil's soybean - producing regions are expected to receive precipitation this week, which will accelerate soybean pod - filling in January. However, the hot and dry conditions in the central - eastern regions may pose concerns for soybean growth. Argentina's soybean - producing regions are expected to have dry weather this week, which may stress soybean growth [3] 国际供需 - A private exporter reported selling 100,000 tons of soybeans to Egypt for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. The US soybean export inspection volume for the week ending December 25, 2025, was 750,312 tons, meeting expectations. As of December 27, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 97.9%, and the harvesting rate was 0.1% [5][6] 国内供需 - On December 29, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 4200 tons (43%) compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased. The palm oil inventory increased by 4.87% week - on - week, while the soybean oil inventory decreased by 3.07%. The imported soybean port inventory decreased by 6203 tons. Agricultural product prices showed mixed trends [8][9] Macro News 国际要闻 - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2026 is 16.1%. The US November existing - home sales contract index monthly rate was 3.3%. Various EIA inventory data for the week ending December 19, 2025, are provided [10] 国内要闻 - On December 29, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted down (yuan appreciation) by 27 points. The Chinese central bank conducted 4823 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 4150 billion yuan [12] Fund Flows - On December 29, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 43.66 billion yuan, including 21.944 billion yuan from commodity futures and 20.358 billion yuan from stock index futures [15]