品种晨会纪要：宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-30-20251230

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures (SC2602) will run weakly in the short - term and mid - term, showing an overall trend of weakening after a period of shock. The short - term and mid - term trends are both "shock", and the intraday trend is "weak", with the reference view being "weak operation" [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Price and Trend - The short - term (within one week) and mid - term (two weeks to one month) trends of crude oil 2602 are "shock", and the intraday trend is "weak". The reference view is that it will operate weakly [1]. Driving Logic - The recent sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the most direct and powerful driving force for the rebound of oil prices. The US has increased pressure on Venezuela, with an estimated cumulative seizure of about 6 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil. Venezuela exported about 600,000 barrels per day in November, and the number of tankers going to Venezuela has decreased, leading to concerns about a global supply gap and pushing up the risk premium of oil prices. - The attack on Russian refineries by Ukraine has made geopolitical factors dominant in the short - term oil market. - After the short - term positive factors are digested, the domestic crude oil futures prices stabilized in a shock on the night session of Monday, and the futures prices gave back their gains. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures will operate weakly in a shock on Tuesday [5].