集运日报：SCFIS大幅上行，或因节前对资金态度，盘面冲高回落，已建议落袋后短期建议观望为主。-20251230

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - SCFIS has significantly increased, but the futures market has fallen after reaching a high due to pre - holiday caution towards funds. The focus should be on tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates. The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1][5][6] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract has had a seasonal rebound, suggesting light - position participation or waiting and seeing [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs SCFIS and NCFI Freight Indexes - On December 29, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1742.64 points, up 9.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1301.41 points, up 35.3% from the previous period [2] - On December 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1656.32 points, up 103.4 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1690 USD/TEU, up 10.24% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 2188 USD/FEU, up 9.84% from the previous period [3] - On December 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1094.77 points, up 7.24% from the previous period. The NCFI for the European route was 1144.37 points, up 7.22% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1254.91 points, up 2.16% from the previous period [4] - On December 26, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period. The CCFI for the European route was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [4] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's November composite PMI was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service sector PMI preliminary value was 53.1, higher than the previous and expected values, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The Eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 and the previous - 7.4 [5] - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [5] - The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global services PMI was 55, higher than the expected 54.6 and the previous 54.8. The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global composite PMI was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, higher than the expected and previous values of 54.6 [5] Futures Market - On December 29, the main contract 2602 closed at 1822.9, up 0.87%, with a trading volume of 24,400 lots and an open interest of 30,400 lots, down 1412 lots from the previous day [6] Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract has reached a new high, and it is recommended to take all profits. It is advisable to wait and see for the short term and not to add more positions [7] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [7] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high and wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back before determining the subsequent direction [7] Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [7] - The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [7] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [7] Geopolitical News - On December 28, local time, the Israeli Defense Forces confirmed that last week, its delegation signed a tri - lateral military cooperation work plan for 2026 with military representatives from Greece and Cyprus in Cyprus, and also signed bilateral military cooperation plans between Israel and Greece and between Israel and Cyprus [8]